Solana (SOL) is showing signs of a major price move as its circulating supply tightens due to heavy staking and institutional accumulation. Analysts suggest that a strategically engineered supply squeeze, combined with strong bid support, could push SOL toward new all-time highs by mid-Q4 2025.

Solana Supply Dynamics Tighten Market Float

One of the key factors behind Solana’s bullish outlook is the locked-up supply. Currently, approximately 70% of SOL tokens are staked, which significantly reduces the liquid float available for trading. This scarcity creates a natural supply squeeze, limiting the number of tokens that can enter the market at any given time.

In addition to staking, 16 institutional holders control around 15.83 million SOL, roughly 2.75% of the circulating supply. Of these, Forward Industries leads the pack, holding 6.822 million SOL, which accounts for 43% of the total institutional float. Their accumulation pattern can act as a major liquidity lever, giving them the ability to influence short-term market dynamics.

Institutional Moves Could Drive SOL Momentum

Forward Industries has initiated a $4 billion at-the-market (ATM) equity program, allowing the company to raise cash and gradually buy SOL. This type of institutional buying can act as a significant catalyst for price appreciation, especially when combined with limited circulating supply.

Such activity has already contributed to SOL retesting its yearly peak of $250, following a minor pullback of 6.4% last week. With strong FOMO among retail and institutional investors, the market is primed for a larger upward move.

Strategic Supply Shock Signals Potential Breakout

On-chain data highlights a major bullish development: of the total SOL supply, only 85 million tokens are actively tradable, while the rest remains locked up in staking or held by institutional wallets. At the current rate of accumulation, analysts predict the liquid float could dry up in just 45 days, which would further tighten supply and amplify upward price pressure.

This supply shock is not random; it reflects a strategically engineered setup where whales and institutions are stacking tokens with conviction. By locking up the majority of SOL, these holders reduce immediate liquidity while continuing to earn staking yields.

Technical Outlook Supports SOL Upside

From a technical perspective, SOL’s current position near $250 aligns with historical resistance zones. Analysts suggest that a successful breach of this level could trigger a price discovery phase, with the first potential stop around $295. Given the tight supply and strong bid support, a $300+ breakout by mid-Q4 is increasingly plausible.

Analysts also note that SOL’s bullish setup is reinforced by higher trading volumes, strong on-chain accumulation, and growing institutional interest. These factors collectively increase the probability of a sustained upward trend.

Market Implications of SOL’s Scarcity

The supply dynamics have wider implications for the market. A reduced tradable float can make SOL more susceptible to volatility but also amplifies bullish momentum during accumulation phases. Investors may find themselves in a race to acquire tokens before liquidity dries up, further accelerating the rally.

Institutional participation, particularly from large holders like Forward Industries, also signals confidence in Solana’s long-term fundamentals. By locking up tokens and buying strategically, these players are effectively controlling a significant portion of the market float, which may contribute to smoother price appreciation and reduced sell-side pressure.

SOL Outlook for Q4 2025

Looking ahead, the combination of a supply squeeze, institutional accumulation, and technical positioning sets the stage for SOL to challenge $300+ levels. Market participants should monitor staking trends, institutional wallet activity, and liquid float metrics to gauge potential breakout strength.

If the current accumulation continues, SOL could not only surpass $300 but potentially revisit its all-time highs with strong momentum. However, traders should also remain cautious of short-term pullbacks if minor resistance zones create temporary sell pressure.

Conclusion

Solana’s market setup reflects a rare confluence of scarcity and strategic accumulation. With 70% of the supply staked, major institutional holders controlling a large portion of the float, and strong technical positioning, SOL is primed for a potential mid-Q4 breakout above $300. Investors and traders should keep a close eye on these metrics, as the coming weeks could define Solana’s next major upward leg.