Bitcoin Trades Near $109K as ETF Outflows and Powell’s Hawkish Tone Weigh on Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $109,000 on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered unexpectedly hawkish remarks that dampened investor sentiment across risk assets. Traders scaled back expectations for near-term rate cuts, sending shockwaves through the broader crypto market and prompting outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Market data from CryptoQuant shows a notable decline in U.S. ETF demand, while Glassnode reported heavy selling from long-term holders. Together, these trends highlight fading momentum for Bitcoin as macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced institutional appetite weigh on digital-asset markets.

Fed’s Message Reverses Rate-Cut Bets

Before Powell’s post-meeting press conference, traders on Polymarket had priced in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. That probability has since dropped to 71%, while the likelihood of no change has climbed to 26%. The shift reflects how quickly investors reassessed their expectations after Powell warned that the Fed may keep policy tight for longer to fight persistent inflation pressures.

The recalibration spilled into crypto markets almost immediately. As global trading desks opened, Bitcoin slipped below $110,000, and major altcoins turned lower, erasing gains from earlier in the week.

ETF Outflows Underscore Cooling Demand

According to CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, marking one of the weakest readings since April 2025. Ether inflows have also slowed to near-zero levels, underscoring waning investor enthusiasm.

Further evidence of softening demand can be seen in the Coinbase premium index, which measures the difference between U.S. and offshore exchange prices. The premium has flattened close to zero, indicating that U.S. institutional and retail traders are no longer paying extra for Bitcoin exposure.

Meanwhile, the CME futures basis—a gauge of institutional risk appetite—has fallen to multi-year lows. Together, these indicators suggest that large investors are taking profits instead of increasing exposure amid macro uncertainty.

Long-Term Holders Turn to Profit-Taking

On-chain analytics from Glassnode reveal that long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling at the fastest pace in months. Approximately 104,000 BTC—worth more than $11 billion—are being distributed each month as prices remain stuck below the short-term holder cost basis of around $113,000.

Transfer volumes from these older wallets to exchanges have surged to nearly $293 million daily, suggesting that long-term investors are securing profits while demand softens. Analysts view this behavior as typical during consolidation phases but warn that persistent selling pressure could delay any sustained recovery.

Solana ETFs Launch but Prices Retreat

Elsewhere, Solana (SOL) faced a steep pullback despite positive news from U.S. markets. The first spot Solana ETFs launched this week, drawing inflows but failing to lift prices. SOL fell 8% on Thursday to around $186, erasing its year-over-year gains.

Data from issuers show that Bitwise’s BSOL fund attracted $116 million within two days, while Grayscale’s GSOL product brought in about $1.4 million. Yet, the token’s decline reflected broader weakness in sentiment following large on-chain transfers from Jump Crypto to Galaxy Digital, which analysts interpreted as portfolio rebalancing moves.

Despite the ETF inflows, traders appear cautious about Solana’s short-term outlook amid an environment of tightening liquidity and fading speculative interest.

Macro Headwinds Continue to Dominate

The crypto market’s reaction underscores how strongly macroeconomic narratives still influence digital-asset prices. Powell’s tone reminded investors that monetary easing is not guaranteed, leading to a broad risk-off move across equities, tech, and crypto.

Volatility indicators such as the Bitcoin volatility index (BVIN) remain subdued, pointing to a market that is consolidating rather than panicking. Still, many traders expect heightened swings ahead of the Fed’s December decision, particularly if inflation data surprises to the upside.

Outlook: Traders Eye Fed Path and ETF Flows

As Asia’s trading session gets underway, Bitcoin remains stable near $109,000, with traders watching for any signs of renewed ETF inflows or institutional accumulation. Polymarket odds now show a 55% probability of no rate change, slightly higher since Powell’s comments, suggesting lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s next step.

Analysts note that Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $105,000–$107,000 support zone will be key for determining short-term direction. A decisive break above $113,000 could signal renewed momentum, while further ETF outflows may trigger another leg lower.

For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode, balancing cautious optimism on Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals against near-term headwinds from monetary policy and fading U.S. ETF demand.