Bitcoin News

Story: Arthur Hayes Reaffirms Bold Bitcoin Price Target as Liquidity Cycle Turns

By Sakamoto Nashi

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Hayes Says $80,000 Was “The Bottom” After a Trillion-Dollar Liquidity Shock. Hayes framed the entire drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high near $125,000 down to the $80,000 region…

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ETF Outflows Were Misread — Not Institutions Dumping Bitcoin. One of Hayes’ strongest points during the interview was the misconception surrounding ETF outflows.

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DAT Activity Also Slowed, Removing an Important Source of Buying. Digital Asset Treasury companies — corporate entities that issue stock or debt to acquire Bitcoin…

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Why Bitcoin Is Struggling to Break Out Above $90,000. Despite the improving liquidity outlook, Bitcoin continues to trade near the $90,000 range.

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Hayes Still Confident in a Massive Move Toward $200,000–$250,000. Even with only weeks left in the year, Hayes is not backing away from his bold year-end target.

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Arthur Hayes remains firmly committed to his highly optimistic Bitcoin outlook, insisting that the recent plunge to $80,000 marked the cycle bottom — not the beginning of a…

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During an interview on the Milk Road Show on November 26, Hayes said the violent sell-off was entirely driven by a massive dollar-liquidity drain across global markets.

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His analysis is based on a liquidity index built using Bloomberg data, which tracks changes in Treasury General Account balances, Reverse Repo Facility usage, and Federal Reserve…

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From July to November, both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve drained liquidity simultaneously.

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Hayes maintains that the worst of the liquidity compression has already occurred, meaning the $80,000 level is likely to stand as the cycle’s floor.

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But Hayes explained that the largest holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF include major financial institutions such as Brevan Howard, Millennium, Goldman Sachs, Avenue Capital, and…

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They bought ETF shares, pledged them as collateral, and shorted Bitcoin futures contracts. As long as futures funding rates remained high, this trade generated steady returns.

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This forced traders to unwind the strategy:

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This mechanical unwind generated ETF outflows — but did not represent bearish conviction about Bitcoin.

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Hayes stressed that retail investors misinterpreted these flows as institutional selling, when in reality they were simply the closing of arbitrage positions.

The Currency Analytics

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