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Story: Becerra Hits 95% on Kalshi as California Governor Primary Votes Close

By Evie Vavasseur

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How Becerra Got Here. Back in early April, Becerra was polling at 5%. His odds on Kalshi's governor market were below 1%.

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Steyer's $200 Million Bet. Tom Steyer didn't go quietly. He spent $200 million on his campaign — a staggering number by any…

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Trump's Endorsement and Hilton's Ceiling. Hilton's situation is its own kind of complicated. President Donald Trump endorsed him, which…

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Xavier Becerra went into primary day as the heavy favorite. Kalshi's prediction market had him priced at 95% to advance to the general election — a number that pretty much tells…

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Republican Steve Hilton, by contrast, sat at just 4% on that same market. That gap is brutal. And it didn't happen by accident.

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Back in early April, Becerra was polling at 5%. His odds on Kalshi's governor market were below 1%. Not exactly the trajectory of a frontrunner.

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By primary day, the polls backed up what the markets were already pricing in. An Emerson College poll had Becerra at 28%, with Tom Steyer at 22% and Hilton at 21%.

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The field is crowded. It's basically been Becerra's race to lose for weeks, though.

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Tom Steyer didn't go quietly. He spent $200 million on his campaign — a staggering number by any measure — and leaned hard into social media influencers to widen his reach in the…

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Still, 40% is not 95%. Steyer's money bought him visibility and probably kept him competitive in the final polling averages, but it didn't overtake Becerra's lead.

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More context: Trump Invites Coinbase, Ripple, and 8 Other Crypto Giants to White House as CLARITY Act Hits 10% Odds

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Steyer's late surge, funded by that $200 million war chest, made the race feel tighter than the markets suggested. Probably a good story for his campaign to tell.

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It's worth noting that Kalshi's figures are a trading snapshot. They move. They've moved throughout this race, and they'll keep moving as results come in.

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Becerra's climb from below 1% in the governor market to 95% on primary day is pretty much the whole arc of this race compressed into a single data point.

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See also: SafePal Breach Hits 39,798 Customers Through Order-Tracking Plugin Flaw

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