Bitcoin News

Story: Bitcoin Drops 3% as CPI Data, Fed Testimony, and Hormuz Blockade Converge

By Sakamoto Nashi

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CPI Numbers and What the Fed Might Do. Economists are calling for a 0.2% drop in the headline CPI for June, which would drag annual…

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Oil Prices and the Hormuz Factor. Oil already moved hard. On July 13, Brent crude closed at $83.30 and WTI settled at $78.

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Bitcoin's Key Levels to Watch. The numbers that matter are clear enough. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $64,273 — the recent high — to…

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Bitcoin's sitting at $62,172 right now, down 3.1% on the day. It's been a rough stretch — the coin swung between $64,273 and $61,794 before settling into this uncomfortable…

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Three things are hitting at once, and that's the problem. The June Consumer Price Index report drops today. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies. And the U.S.

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Economists are calling for a 0.2% drop in the headline CPI for June, which would drag annual inflation down from 4.2% in May to roughly 3.8%.

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But core inflation is stickier. Forecasts put it somewhere between 2.8% and 2.9%, basically unchanged. And that's the number the Fed actually cares about.

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller already said a near-term rate hike might be necessary if core inflation stays elevated. Markets took that seriously.

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Warsh's testimony comes after the CPI print, which means he'll be reacting in real time. If the headline number comes in soft and he plays it cool — acknowledges progress,…

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Oil already moved hard. On July 13, Brent crude closed at $83.30 and WTI settled at $78.14 — both up more than 9% on the day.

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Read also: Bitcoin Slides Toward $62,000 as Trump Hits Hormuz Shipping With New Fees

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The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for a massive chunk of global oil supply. The U.S. says it's targeting Iranian-linked vessels specifically, and that neutral shipping…

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Any escalation — a misidentified ship, a confrontation that spills wider than intended — could send oil higher in a hurry. Higher oil means higher inflation expectations.

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The risk premium on crude is probably going higher before it comes down. That's the uncomfortable reality sitting underneath today's price action.

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On the downside, $61,794 is the floor traders are watching. A break below that opens the door to $60,000, which is a psychological level that tends to attract a lot of attention.

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