The Currency analytics

Bitcoin Drops Hard as On-Chain Data Turns Ugly

By Sakamoto Nashi

Bitcoin can't catch a break. The world's biggest cryptocurrency fell back below key levels Monday after briefly poking above $78,000 over the weekend, and Galaxy Digital's Alex…

Late January was brutal for Bitcoin holders. The digital asset got hammered with a nasty 15% drop between January 28 and 31, then things got even worse heading into the weekend.

BTC hit $75,644 on Coinbase at its worst point.

That's below the average cost basis of major US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which sits around $84,000 according to industry estimates.

Thorn's analysis revealed some pretty concerning numbers. He said 46% of Bitcoin's supply is now underwater, meaning those coins were last moved at higher prices than today's…

There's basically a demand vacuum between $82,000 and $70,000, meaning there's not much buying interest in that range.

Thorn didn't see much accumulation happening from whales or long-term holders either. Some profit-taking has slowed down, but that's not really bullish - it's more like sellers…

US legislation like the CLARITY Act might help eventually. But that's not likely to pass anytime soon.

Doctor Profit, another crypto analyst who's been tracking Bitcoin cycles for years, just revised his outlook lower.

February 2026 brought more of the same cautious trading. Bitcoin tried to push past $80,000 on February 2 but got smacked down hard by sellers.

Interestingly, some altcoins have actually held up better than Bitcoin during this selloff. That divergence has got portfolio managers rethinking their crypto allocations and…

Alex Thorn said on February 3 that institutional buying interest remains basically nonexistent.

The Fed's interest rate decision on February 4 could shake things up. Galaxy Digital thinks any surprise rate hikes would probably hurt high-risk assets like crypto even more.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest keeps buying Bitcoin for their fund despite the carnage. They still think long-term prospects look good, but even the most bullish investors admit…

The technical picture shows Bitcoin trapped in a descending channel pattern since its peak, with each bounce getting weaker than the last.

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