Bitcoin News
By James Thorp
1 / 15
Understanding the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle based on its halving events, when miner…
2 / 15
The cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines this week, with Bitcoin dropping more than 9%, Ethereum falling 6%, and XRP plunging 15%. Some altcoins fared even worse.
3 / 15
The sell-off accelerated after President Trump’s announcement of renewed China tariffs, triggering $19 billion in daily liquidations on October 10, 2025.
4 / 15
For instance, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $67,000 in November 2021 and subsequently fell over the following months.
5 / 15
Matthew Nay, a research analyst at Messari, explained that some of the recent market weakness could be due to traders adhering to the four-year cycle.
6 / 15
Jonathan Morgan, lead crypto analyst at Stocktwits, described the behavior as “mechanical selling” driven by expectations tied to the four-year cycle rather than underlying…
7 / 15
Jasper De Maere, a desk strategist at Wintermute, noted that many retail traders still follow the old cycle-based playbook.
8 / 15
Why Experts Believe the Cycle May Be Broken
9 / 15
While some traders rely on the four-year cycle, many analysts argue that the traditional model may no longer hold due to significant shifts in the crypto market.
10 / 15
De Maere emphasized that Bitcoin and the wider crypto space have matured. “The core drivers once used to explain the four-year cycle have just become more irrelevant as BTC and…
11 / 15
Nay echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially return to all-time highs before the end of 2025 despite the sell-off.
12 / 15
The market’s recent volatility was intensified by the largest liquidation event in crypto history.
13 / 15
Morgan explained that in the early days, miner rewards significantly influenced supply and price, making the four-year cycle a reliable predictor.
14 / 15
While the four-year cycle may still influence some retail traders, the broader crypto market is increasingly shaped by institutional involvement.
15 / 15
Analysts caution that while mechanical selling can create short-term pressure, the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major assets may no longer align with the…
The Currency Analytics
Want the full story?