Bitcoin News
By Dan Saada
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Despite Bitcoin (BTC) holding close to all-time highs and enjoying a surge of institutional interest through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a key derivatives market signal is…
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While spot BTC ETFs have seen over $5 billion in net inflows in the past month, data from derivatives markets shows that traders are becoming increasingly cautious.
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Under typical market conditions, Bitcoin futures contracts trade at a premium of 5% to 15% over the spot price, compensating for the time value of money and market risk.
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This shift comes as BTC hovers near $103,480, just 8% below its all-time high. The premium had already begun to shrink after Bitcoin was rejected at the $110,000 level earlier…
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Notably, the futures premium is now lower than during April’s crash, when BTC briefly plunged 10% to around $74,440.
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To further assess market sentiment, analysts often examine the Bitcoin options skew — specifically the 25% delta skew, which compares the cost of bearish put options to bullish…
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When this metric is above +5%, it signals bearish sentiment, as traders pay more for downside protection.
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A value below -5% suggests bullish sentiment, as calls become more expensive.
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As of June 20, the skew sits at +5%, teetering on the edge of neutral-to-bearish territory. This is a sharp reversal from just 10 days ago, when the skew dropped to -5%,…
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This shift in sentiment shows that traders are increasingly disappointed by Bitcoin’s failure to maintain upward momentum — and are preparing for potential downside.
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Analysts suggest the current sentiment could be influenced by broader macroeconomic uncertainty:
12 / 15
Interest rates in the United States remain above 4.25%, with no immediate signs of easing.
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Persistent inflation concerns continue to weigh on investor confidence.
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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also added risk to the markets.
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Despite these headwinds, the Russell 2000 Index, which tracks U.S. small-cap stocks, has held steady near its 2,100 support level.
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