Bitcoin News
By Jean-Luc Maracon
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Fed Policy and the Rate Probability Math. Futures markets weren't panicking about rates, at least not yet.
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ETF Flows: The $424 Million Swing. The ETF data told a messy but ultimately encouraging story.
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Bitcoin didn't blink. Even as oil markets rattled traders and inflation fears crept back in, Bitcoin held above $66,000 on July 21, sitting at $66,313 while Brent crude futures…
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The oil story matters here. On July 20, Brent crude hit $91.42 — its highest since June 11 — before pulling back to $88.28.
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The Energy Information Administration had projected Brent averaging $74 in the third quarter. So $91 is a serious overshoot from that baseline.
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Futures markets weren't panicking about rates, at least not yet. Going into the July 29 Fed meeting, traders assigned an 83.4% probability to stable rates, with a 16.
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The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.56%. The dollar index was at 100.69. Neither screaming danger, neither exactly comfortable.
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The Fed's July Monetary Policy Report added some weight to the picture. Energy costs pushed 12-month PCE inflation to 4.1% in May, with core PCE at 3.4%.
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The ETF data told a messy but ultimately encouraging story. On July 13, Farside Investors recorded a $424.7 million outflow from a spot Bitcoin ETF — a big single-day hit.
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Related: Bitcoin ETFs Pull $75.7 Million Over Two Weeks but Price Stays Flat
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Not every dip turns into a rout. Sometimes it's just a dip.
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The geopolitical backdrop stayed complicated, though. Threats of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz didn't disappear just because ceasefire talks started.
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The EIA's longer-range outlook pegged Brent at $65 in 2027, assuming production stabilizes, trade routes stay open, and inventories normalize. That's a long list of assumptions.
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Bitcoin's resilience at $66,000-plus isn't really mysterious. Stable rate expectations, recovering ETF flows, and a dollar index that hasn't gone haywire — those three things…
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See also: Ethereum ETFs Pull $105M as Bitcoin Funds Struggle to Reclaim Momentum
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