Finance News

Story: Bond Markets Defy the Fed as 30-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5.

By Julie Binoche

1 / 15

Mortgage Rates Stuck, Homebuyers Squeezed. The housing market is probably the clearest place where the Fed's diminished power shows up in…

2 / 15

Balance Sheet Expansion Returns, Crypto Caught in the Crossfire. The Fed's balance sheet shrank by $2.2 trillion over the past few years through quantitative…

3 / 15

The Federal Reserve is losing its grip. Despite cutting short-term rates, long-term borrowing costs keep climbing — and the bond market basically isn't listening anymore.

4 / 15

Jerome Powell's Fed only directly controls the federal funds rate, which governs overnight lending between banks. That's it.

5 / 15

The break started with the pandemic spending surge and it hasn't healed.

6 / 15

The federal debt now sits at $37.6 trillion. In fiscal year 2025 alone, the Treasury issued $30.2 trillion in marketable securities.

7 / 15

The housing market is probably the clearest place where the Fed's diminished power shows up in everyday life. Throughout 2024, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stayed between 6.

8 / 15

That's a pretty brutal outcome for anyone who waited on rate cuts to buy a home.

9 / 15

And it's not just homebuyers getting squeezed. The federal government itself faces a massive refinancing crunch. Some $9.1 trillion in securities mature in 2025.

10 / 15

Read also: Digital Chamber Pushes Senate Hard on CLARITY Act with Growing Crypto Coalition Behind It

11 / 15

The Fed's balance sheet shrank by $2.2 trillion over the past few years through quantitative tightening. But that process has reversed.

12 / 15

What does that mean for crypto? Quite a bit, actually. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have grown increasingly sensitive to Treasury supply dynamics and Fed liquidity…

13 / 15

And the rate outlook isn't helping sentiment either. Bond traders are pricing in a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026 — a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of continued cuts.

14 / 15

The Fed's position is genuinely awkward right now. Hiking rates would expose how fragile the fiscal situation already is.

15 / 15

Related: Coinbase Becomes First U.S. Exchange to Win Global Perps Approval

The Currency Analytics

Want the full story?