Finance News

Story: CFTC’s 267-Page Prediction Market Plan Leaves Polymarket’s $34B Offshore Volume…

By Sydney TheCMO

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Offshore Volume the CFTC Can't Reach. The framework only covers federally regulated platforms.

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Kalshi's Insider Trading Screen. Kalshi — one of the few federally regulated prediction market platforms — isn't waiting around.

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Prediction Markets Inside Prop Trading Desks. On the tech side, Trade Tech Solutions has embedded event contracts directly into its Match-Trader…

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What the CFTC's Framework Actually Does. The proposal wants to bring structure to a market that's been operating in a regulatory gray zone.

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The CFTC dropped a 267-page regulatory proposal on June 10. It wants to bring prediction markets under formal oversight — but the plan's reach is narrower than it sounds, and the…

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The commission's framework amends Regulation 40.11, setting up a case-by-case review process for event contracts.

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The framework only covers federally regulated platforms. Decentralized markets and offshore venues — where a huge chunk of real trading happens — are basically outside its scope.

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That gap isn't lost on critics. Lawmakers have already pushed back, arguing the proposal is too lenient. Some say it could open the door to gambling addiction risks.

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And the scale is real. Prediction markets have grown fast, and the demand from U.S. users clearly didn't wait for regulatory clarity before flowing offshore.

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It's a preemptive approach. Rather than chasing bad actors after the fact, Kalshi wants to build a risk-scoring system that catches potential insider threats at the door.

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Related: SEC Eyes Rule 611 Scrapping, and Alex Thorn Says Tokenized Stocks Win Big

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The broader industry, though, is still figuring out how to handle compliance across wildly different platforms. Some are regulated, some aren't. Some operate onshore, many don't.

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That kind of integration matters. It's not just that prediction markets are growing — it's that they're getting wired into existing trading infrastructure in ways that make them…

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It's also a sign of how mainstream prediction markets have become. A few years ago, these were niche instruments.

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But the limits are obvious. Offshore platforms aren't going to suddenly fall in line because Washington published a 267-page document.

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