Finance News

Story: Citadel Bets on Fed Rate Hike as Polymarket Sees $100M in FOMC Wagers

By Bruce Buterin

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Why Citadel Sees a Hike Coming. Flight's argument is that the Fed needs to act to prove it's serious about price stability.

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What a Hike Would Do to Crypto. A rate increase would strengthen the dollar. That's pretty much the standard playbook.

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Eyes on Warsh's Press Conference. Whatever the committee decides, the press conference with Warsh will matter as much as the number…

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Citadel Securities is calling a surprise. While most of Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to sit tight this week, Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel…

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The FOMC is meeting July 28 and 29, with the rate decision dropping Wednesday afternoon. Federal funds futures currently put a 66.3% probability on a hold at the 3.50%–3.75% range.

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Flight's argument is that the Fed needs to act to prove it's serious about price stability. Chair Kevin Warsh has already been signaling a shift — a more adaptive posture on…

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May CPI data didn't help calm anyone down. Annual inflation came in at 4.2%, which is still well above where the Fed wants it.

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President Trump, for his part, wants the opposite. Speaking on Air Force One, he pushed for lower rates and said the economy could grow faster with cheaper borrowing.

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The friction between Trump's rate preferences and what the inflation data is actually showing is real.

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Read also: Dollar Slides as Oil Slump Cools Fed, BOE, and BOJ Rate Hike Bets

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A rate increase would strengthen the dollar. That's pretty much the standard playbook. And a stronger dollar tends to pressure Bitcoin and altcoins, which often move inversely to…

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Bitcoin specifically tends to react hard to unexpected Fed moves. It's not just about rates — it's about what a surprise signals.

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Polymarket has seen nearly $100 million in wagers spread across five possible rate scenarios. That's a lot of money sitting on a decision that most people think is already settled.

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Related: Bitcoin Climbs to $65,680 as Fed Rate Bets and US-Iran Pause Rattle Traders

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One separate note from the week: Elon Musk's X Money exited its exclusive testing phase on July 27 and is now available nationwide to U.S. Premium and Premium+ users.

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