Crypto Exchanges
By Steven Anderson
1 / 13
Armstrong Apologized Before — Errors Keep Coming. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong had already said sorry for a similar problem during March Madness…
2 / 13
What This Means for Prediction Market Credibility. The broader issue goes past one bad notification. Coinbase is a major US exchange, and a lot of…
3 / 13
Coinbase sent a push notification telling users Norway had beaten Brazil in their World Cup matchup. Problem: the game wasn't over.
4 / 13
The notification got the score wrong too. It said Norway won 3-2. The real result, once the match finally ended, was 2-1.
5 / 13
Coinbase routes sports prediction market activity through Kalshi's event-contract platform, a federally regulated venue for binary-style wagers on real-world outcomes.
6 / 13
Prediction markets like Kalshi's operate similarly to binary options. You're betting on whether something happens or not.
7 / 13
More context: Coinbase July Update Targets Trading, Payments, AI, and Stablecoins in One Push
8 / 13
There's a pretty clear reason why fixes haven't stuck: money. Analysts put the annualized run rate for Coinbase's prediction market business at around $100 million.
9 / 13
So the financial incentive to keep sending aggressive alerts is real, and it's probably why corrections haven't been prioritized despite the public embarrassment.
10 / 13
Kalshi's federally regulated status was supposed to be a selling point. The pitch was basically that prediction markets, done properly through a licensed venue, are legitimate…
11 / 13
Related: Tim Draper Denies Moving 1,000 Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime Despite Analyst Claims
12 / 13
Coinbase hasn't put out any statement on what specifically changes after this. No timeline, no technical fix announced, no details on whether human review gets added to the…
13 / 13
Kalshi spent $20 million advertising the World Cup. Coinbase's prediction market business is on track for $100 million annualized.
The Currency Analytics
Want the full story?