Crypto Exchanges

Story: Coinbase Backs Revised CLARITY Act as 31% Polymarket Odds Expose Trump Ethics Drag

By James Thorp

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Trump Ethics Dispute Stalls Legislative Momentum. The main drag isn't the bill's content. It's President Donald Trump.

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What the Senate Democrats' Changes Actually Do. Senate Democrats didn't just tweak the bill's margins.

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A 31% Chance and a Lot of Waiting. Prediction markets aren't perfect. Polymarket's 31% figure is a crowd-sourced probability, not a…

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Coinbase wants the CLARITY Act to pass. But right now, the odds aren't great.

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The San Francisco-based exchange has thrown its support behind a revised version of the CLARITY Act after Senate Democrats added tougher customer protections to the bill.

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And yet the bill's prospects look rough. Prediction platform Polymarket has the CLARITY Act's approval odds sitting at just 31%.

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The main drag isn't the bill's content. It's President Donald Trump. An escalating ethics controversy tied to Trump has consumed significant legislative bandwidth in the Senate,…

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The specifics of how the ethics controversy directly ties to the CLARITY Act's stall are somewhat murky. No key lawmakers have offered clear public guidance on timing.

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That's a hard position for Coinbase. The company has been one of the loudest corporate voices pushing for federal crypto legislation, and the CLARITY Act was supposed to be a…

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Senate Democrats didn't just tweak the bill's margins. They added what the source describes as more robust safeguards for customers — protections designed to boost consumer trust…

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Coinbase's decision to back that version is worth pausing on. For an exchange operating at the scale Coinbase does, endorsing stricter customer protections is partly strategic…

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Read also: Lummis Pushes CLARITY Act as Congress Eyes 50-State Digital Asset Rules

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So the endorsement makes sense. It's also a signal that Coinbase sees the enhanced version as workable, not a poison pill.

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But workable and passable aren't the same thing right now.

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Prediction markets aren't perfect. Polymarket's 31% figure is a crowd-sourced probability, not a certainty, and odds can move fast when political situations shift.

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