Stock Market
By James Thorp
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The greenback took a hit Monday. Fresh inflation numbers came in cooler than Wall Street expected, and now the dollar's staring down its third weekly loss in four tries.
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Labor Department data shows January's Consumer Price Index crawled up just 0.2%. Economists had penciled in something higher.
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Currency desks started buzzing about what this means for Fed policy. If inflation's really cooling off, Jerome Powell and his crew might pump the brakes on rate hikes.
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The euro jumped 0.4% against the dollar while the yen climbed 0.5%. Traders are betting lower U.S.
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The British pound basically went nowhere as traders wait for the Bank of England's next move. Australia's dollar held steady too, getting some help from rising commodity prices.
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Emerging markets saw mixed action. Brazil's real gained some ground, but South Africa's rand got hammered by domestic political drama that's been brewing for weeks.
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Everyone's waiting for Powell's speech Wednesday. The Fed chief's expected to give markets some clarity on where interest rates are headed and how worried the central bank really…
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Some analysts aren't buying the dollar weakness story just yet. "Economic data could swing unexpectedly," warns one currency strategist who covers major banks' trading desks.
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Oil markets added another wrinkle. Brent crude fell 1%, which hurt petro-currencies like the Canadian dollar.
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China's yuan found some stability after weeks of wild swings. The People's Bank of China seems focused on domestic growth rather than currency games right now.
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U.S. retail sales numbers hit later this week. Analysts expect modest growth, which could tell us whether consumers are still spending despite higher borrowing costs.
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The Treasury releases monthly budget figures February 15th. Government spending and tax collection numbers don't usually move currencies much, but fiscal policy's been a hot…
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Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda keeps pushing ultra-loose monetary policy while the Fed tightens.
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European Central Bank meeting minutes drop Thursday. Traders want to know how worried ECB officials are about inflation and whether they're thinking about policy changes.
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Australia publishes employment data February 16th. The Aussie dollar's been surprisingly resilient, partly because the job market's stayed strong.
The Currency Analytics
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