Finance News
By James Thorp
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DraftKings vs. Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi alone processed $17.9 billion in May. The combined trading volume across established…
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Federal License, Legal Fights, and the CFTC. DraftKings holds a federal license that lets it run prediction markets in 38 states, including…
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Revenue Picture Stays Murky. Here's the thing about volume numbers: they don't equal revenue.
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DraftKings posted a 34% jump in its prediction markets' annualized total volume, hitting $3.1 billion in May. The stock moved up 10% on the news.
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The company dropped a Form 8-K to disclose the surge in its Predictions offering. Consumer volume climbed 24% to $1.3 billion in the same period.
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Kalshi alone processed $17.9 billion in May. The combined trading volume across established platforms went from $5 billion in September 2025 to around $24 billion by April 2026.
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Sports drive most of the activity on these platforms — about 80% of Kalshi's volume comes from sports contracts. Politics and crypto fill out most of the rest.
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Whether that conversion actually happens is unclear yet.
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DraftKings holds a federal license that lets it run prediction markets in 38 states, including some where sports betting is still illegal under state law.
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Related: CFTCs 267-Page Prediction Market Plan Leaves Polymarkets $34B Offshore Volume Untouched
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But the legal picture is messy. Conflicting court rulings on whether sports contracts fall under federal or state jurisdiction could push the whole question to the Supreme Court.
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Kalshi is fighting multiple federal lawsuits. The legal pressure on the sector isn't easing.
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And DraftKings has its own industry friction to deal with. Both DraftKings and FanDuel left the American Gaming Association after the association came out against members…
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Here's the thing about volume numbers: they don't equal revenue. DraftKings hasn't said what it actually earns from prediction markets.
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So you've got a 34% volume jump, a 10% stock pop, and basically no clarity on what the business actually makes. That's a gap investors will probably want filled at some point.
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