Technology
By Sakamoto Nashi
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Soaring Volumes Since 2024. ESMA's report highlights a surge in the sector directly linked to the 2024 U.S.
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France, Spain, Switzerland: Blockades Multiply. France didn't wait for the European report to act. In July 2026, Paris ordered a complete block of…
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The Crypto Risk in All This. ESMA doesn't limit itself to prediction markets in its analysis.
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ESMA has made its decision. Polymarket and Kalshi are operating illegally in Europe — no authorization, no financial passport, and staggering volumes.
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The European financial markets regulator has clearly stated that the two prediction market platforms do not have any valid authorization to sell their contracts in the European…
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And that's precisely what has put ESMA on alert.
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The problem is that regulation isn't keeping up. Each contract offered on these platforms — whether it concerns an election, a sports event, an economic indicator, or a crypto…
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Related reading: DoubleZero integrates Kalshi's electoral data at $133 million for traders
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That's a lot of countries. And that's a lot of markets cut off.
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Related: Anthropics Claude AI Blocks Grant for Controversial Biological Weapons Research
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For Polymarket and Kalshi, each national restriction represents a distinct problem to solve.
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ESMA goes even further. It asks the platforms to strengthen their identity checks and transaction monitoring to comply with local specifics.
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ESMA doesn't limit itself to prediction markets in its analysis. The regulator also points to bubble risks linked to massive credit-financed investments in artificial…
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And that's where the situation becomes broader than two unlicensed platforms.
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European restrictions on prediction markets indirectly affect decentralized protocols operating on similar logics. Polymarket, in particular, runs on the Polygon blockchain.
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