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Story: Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 50% as Senate Clock Runs Out

By Maheen Hernandez

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60 Votes, Competing Bills, and an Ethics Fight. The CLARITY Act needs 60 Senate votes. That's the filibuster threshold, and it means real…

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What Senator Lummis Said — and What It Means. Senator Cynthia Lummis has been direct about the stakes.

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What's at Stake for Digital Asset Markets. For institutional players in the digital asset space, every week without the CLARITY Act is…

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Alex Thorn didn't mince words. Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research dropped his estimated probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% to 50% on June 26 — and…

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The Senate adjourned until July 13. That leaves a shrinking window before the August recess, and Thorn's math is pretty straightforward: if the chamber can't commit to a floor…

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Back in April, Thorn had the odds at roughly 50%. They spiked to 75% in May, then got trimmed.

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The CLARITY Act needs 60 Senate votes. That's the filibuster threshold, and it means real bipartisan buy-in — not just a handful of crossover votes.

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And there's another problem. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have made clear they want enforceable ethics rules around government officials' crypto holdings baked into the…

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So the bill's core policy framework isn't really the sticking point. The SEC and CFTC jurisdictional split, the new compliance requirements for digital asset intermediaries —…

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Read also: White House Meets Law Enforcement Over Cryptos Clarity Act Illicit-Finance Provisions

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Senator Cynthia Lummis has been direct about the stakes. Per Thorn's analysis, Lummis warned that failing to pass the Act in 2026 could push market structure legislation as far…

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For the odds to move back above 60%, Thorn's framework basically needs two things to happen fast: a unified Senate text published by early July, and a commitment from Senate…

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Prediction markets peaked at 82% confidence back in February. They're at 41% now. That's a 41-point collapse in roughly four months, and it tracks with how the Senate schedule…

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More context: Pi Networks 3 Pillars: Daily Taps, Trust Graphs, and the SCP Model

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The merged Senate text is the tell. If it drops by mid-July, the odds probably stabilize or recover. If it doesn't, Thorn has already signaled another downgrade is on the table.

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