Regulations
By Sakamoto Nashi
1 / 14
Q2 Numbers Tell Their Own Story. Genius dropped its second-quarter results right after the announcements, and the numbers were hard…
2 / 14
Prediction Market Volumes and the Legal Wrinkle. The timing of these deals matters more when you look at what's happening across the prediction…
3 / 14
Genius Sports just locked in two big agreements in back-to-back days. Polymarket on August 4, Kalshi on August 5 — and the market noticed immediately.
4 / 14
The Polymarket deal came first. It covers settlement data, integrity services, and something that's pretty much unique in the space: exclusive U.S.
5 / 14
But it's not all clean. Net loss widened to $76.7 million, mostly because of costs tied to the Legend acquisition.
6 / 14
Investors didn't seem too worried. Genius shares climbed 14.3% after the Polymarket announcement, then added another 2% when the Kalshi partnership dropped.
7 / 14
More context: CFTC Bans Bookmaker-Style Odds on Kalshi and Polymarket Event Contracts
8 / 14
Polymarket's international platform, though, saw a 26% drop in trading volume during the same period. Its U.S. operations went the other direction, rising 54% to $5 billion.
9 / 14
Open interest across platforms fell from $2 billion to $1.2 billion by the end of July, which is worth watching.
10 / 14
And then there's the legal situation. A federal judge ruled against Kalshi on August 4 — the same day the Polymarket agreement was signed — granting summary judgment to Utah in a…
11 / 14
Worth noting: Kalshi's existing arrangement with Sportradar for MLB and other sports stays in place.
12 / 14
See also: Utah Ruling Leaves Kalshi Exposed in 7 Federal Circuits After Judge Rejects Federal Shield
13 / 14
Genius has been pretty deliberate about positioning itself as the infrastructure layer for prediction markets rather than a participant in them.
14 / 14
Kalshi's $37.7 billion in July volume is the number that probably keeps Genius's team focused.
The Currency Analytics
Want the full story?