Finance News

Story: Gold Drops 28% From January Peak as Fed Rate Call and ETF Exits Pressure Bulls

By Jean-Luc Maracon

1 / 15

ETF Outflows Are Bleeding the Market. The ETF picture is pretty ugly. US-listed gold-backed funds are seeing redemptions of roughly $5.

2 / 15

Technical Levels That Could Break the Trade. The chart setup is bearish. Gold sits at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of $3,943 and trades…

3 / 15

Gold is in trouble. The metal trades around $4,020 right now, and that number carries a lot of weight — it's 28% below the January peak of $5,598, a drawdown deep enough to meet…

4 / 15

The Federal Open Market Committee meets today, July 29, and the decision landing from that room will probably move gold more than anything else this week.

5 / 15

Geopolitics adds another layer. US-Iran tensions haven't gone away, and any flare-up there feeds directly into inflation expectations and gold demand.

6 / 15

Central banks are buying, though. Net purchases hit 244 tonnes in the first quarter alone. A World Gold Council survey found that 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold…

7 / 15

So you've got two forces pulling in opposite directions — sovereign buyers accumulating steadily at one end, and ETF holders cashing out at pace at the other.

8 / 15

The chart setup is bearish. Gold sits at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of $3,943 and trades within a support zone between $3,900 and $4,000.

9 / 15

Related: XRP Drops to $1.05 as Fed Decision Looms Over 7 Active Spot ETFs

10 / 15

Gold has also closed below the midline of its long-term Gaussian channel for multiple consecutive weeks. Three weeks running, to be exact.

11 / 15

The descending resistance line drawn from the January high of $5,598 keeps rejecting price attempts.

12 / 15

If gold holds above $3,900 and breaks through that trendline resistance, the next target is the $4,300-to-$4,400 zone — which also happens to align with JPMorgan's Q4 forecast of…

13 / 15

The Bollinger Band Width Percentile is also worth watching. It's flashing a volatility squeeze — a compression that historically tends to precede a sharp move in either direction.

14 / 15

The RSI breaking its ascending support line is another piece of the bearish case. It's now reading 37, and while that level has historically marked cycle lows in gold, it can…

15 / 15

More context: Pound Holds at $1.32 as Forex Traders Freeze Before Fed Rate Call

The Currency Analytics

Want the full story?