Finance News

Story: Gold at $4,347 on Edge as Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge to 67%

By Julie Binoche

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Oil, Yields, and a Dollar That Won't Quit. Brent crude has blown past $105, up nearly 19% over the past month, driven by geopolitical…

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ETF Inflows and Central Bank Buying Tell a Different Story. Here's where it gets interesting. While the charts look shaky, physical demand is running hot.

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Gold's sitting at a knife's edge. Prices trade near $4,347 on Friday, right at the neckline of a daily head-and-shoulders pattern that, if it breaks, could drag the metal down…

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The technical setup alone would be enough to rattle traders. But it's not just the charts doing damage here — it's a pile of macro pressure landing all at once.

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Not exactly a friendly backdrop for a non-yielding asset.

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Gold's been losing ground three weeks straight, slipping close to 2% on the week heading into Friday.

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The head-and-shoulders itself formed after a rally that ran out of steam between $4,750 and $4,800 — close to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $4,816.

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Two methods get used to figure out a downside target. The first subtracts the pattern height — $385 — from the $4,335 neckline, landing at $3,950. The second is the 0.

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Read also: Bitcoin Approaches $79,000 as Traders Brace for Fed Rate Decision

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But the pattern isn't confirmed yet. Gold actually gained 0.69% on Friday and held the neckline. A move back up to $4,560 would wipe the bearish setup off the table entirely.

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That's not the behavior of investors who think gold is done. Central banks don't pile into an asset at a 62% higher pace and then panic out because Treasury yields tick up a few…

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So there's a real tension here. The macro environment — rising yields, oil-driven inflation, a hawkish Fed, a firm dollar — is pushing one direction.

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Read also: Investors Withdraw $449 Million from Bitcoin ETFs in Three Days, ARK 21Shares Hit Hardest

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The CPI print is the next big catalyst. A hotter-than-expected number would likely cement rate hike expectations further, add more pressure on yields, and maybe finally tip gold…

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Central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2. That number doesn't move unless the conviction is real.

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