Bitcoin News
By Julie Binoche
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The 2020-2022 Precedent Hayes Keeps in Mind. There's a period Hayes clearly cites. Between 2020 and 2022, the Fed's balance sheet doubled.
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The Carry Trade, A Factor Too Quickly Forgotten. The real risk in all this isn't the FIMA. It's the Bank of Japan.
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Arthur Hayes sees something many overlook. The co-founder of BitMEX published an essay on August 10 explaining why Bitcoin might rise — and it involves Tokyo, not Washington.
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The central idea is this: Japan could deposit its U.S. Treasury bonds directly with the Federal Reserve, receive dollars in return, and then use those dollars to buy back yen on…
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Hayes sees in this mechanism an indirect channel to Bitcoin. The idea: more dollars in circulation, even temporarily, boosts overall liquidity.
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There's a period Hayes clearly cites. Between 2020 and 2022, the Fed's balance sheet doubled. During this same window, Bitcoin climbed to nearly $69,000. Coincidence?
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But Hayes isn't naive. He admits that using the FIMA wouldn't equate to a classic quantitative easing. It's not QE.
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And there's a cap. The Fed's documentation is clear on this: $60 billion per counterparty. Not unlimited. Not extendable at will.
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Related: Bitcoin reaches an August high of $65,420 as CPI and PPI data loom
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If Tokyo decides to raise its interest rates — and the markets are watching this very closely — the yen could revalue quickly. Very quickly.
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See also: Bitcoin Hits August Peak at $65,420 as CPI and PPI Data Loom Large
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This phenomenon was already seen in 2024. The repercussions hit stocks, crypto, emerging markets. Not anecdotally — visibly, with rapid declines and exploding volumes.
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Financial markets remain skeptical. Even when the yen briefly strengthened in recent weeks, the effects faded quickly. No lasting trend.
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The channel identified by Hayes between the yen, the Fed, and Bitcoin remains theoretically credible. But credible doesn't mean probable.
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Also read: Bitcoin's red team reports 1,288 flaws and turns to Chinese AI after OpenAI lockdown
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