Bitcoin News

Story: Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Threaten Bitcoin’s $79K Rally

By Maheen Hernandez

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Jackson Hole History Is Actually Pretty Calm for Bitcoin. But here's the thing — 2022 was weird. Pull back and look at Bitcoin's behavior around Jackson…

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Warsh's Silence Since May Makes This Harder to Call. And that's the problem. Warsh has been pretty quiet since taking the Fed chair role in May.

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Bitcoin traders are bracing. Kevin Warsh takes the Jackson Hole stage Friday for his first keynote as Federal Reserve Chair, and the crypto market is already running comparisons…

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That 2022 moment is burned into trader memory. Jerome Powell stepped up to the podium on August 26 and delivered a blunt, unambiguous message on inflation. No comfort. No hedging.

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But here's the thing — 2022 was weird. Pull back and look at Bitcoin's behavior around Jackson Hole speeches going back to 2018 and the picture changes pretty fast.

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Even 2023 — when the Fed's tone leaned hawkish — Bitcoin barely flinched. The dip was 0.4%. That's noise. The real driver in 2022 wasn't just the hawkish tone itself.

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So the question for Friday isn't just what Warsh says. It's whether he says something nobody expected.

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And that's the problem. Warsh has been pretty quiet since taking the Fed chair role in May. He hasn't tipped his hand much on monetary policy.

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What's known: the Fed held interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% in July. That decision wasn't unanimous. There was dissent among officials, with some pushing for increases.

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Read also: Jackson Hole Symposium: Central Bankers Tackle Urgent Crypto Regulation Talks

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Warsh's approach seems likely to differ from the typical Jackson Hole formula. Rather than telegraphing near-term rate moves, he's expected to frame the discussion around broader…

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Bitcoin itself is sitting near $79,093 heading into Friday. It's been stable over the past day, which is notable given that it ran up 23% in the week leading up to August 21.

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Traders watching Warsh will be listening for anything that sounds like a lean toward September action. The next Fed policy meeting is September 15 and 16. That's not far off.

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The historical data probably offers some comfort. Eight years of Jackson Hole speeches, and only once did Bitcoin move more than 2%. The median outcome is a 1% gain.

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More context: Bitcoin Surges Above $77K; Gold Climbs to $4,632 Amid Inflation Fears

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