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Story: New Jersey Escalates Battle with Kalshi Over Prediction Markets in Supreme Court

By Julie Binoche

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How the Fight Got Here. Prediction markets — platforms where users bet real money on the outcome of events — have been…

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What a Ruling Could Actually Mean. If the Supreme Court takes this up, the implications stretch well past Kalshi and New Jersey.

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Kalshi's Position and What Comes Next. Kalshi's argument rests on federal preemption — the idea that federal regulatory frameworks…

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New Jersey just escalated. The state filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S.

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The core argument hasn't changed much. New Jersey says Kalshi's operations violate state gambling laws.

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Prediction markets — platforms where users bet real money on the outcome of events — have been operating in a legal gray zone for years.

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Kalshi pushed back in lower courts, arguing that federal oversight should preempt whatever the state has to say. Those efforts didn't go the way Kalshi hoped.

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That's the part that's still murky. The Supreme Court hasn't said whether it'll take the case.

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The prediction market industry is watching. Closely.

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Read also: New Jersey Seeks Supreme Court Review of Kalshis Controversial Sports Contracts

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Right now, it doesn't have one. Kalshi is operating under legal uncertainty, and so are plenty of other platforms in adjacent spaces.

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And it's not just Kalshi that's exposed. Any company running a prediction market, event contract platform, or similar product with U.S. users has skin in this game.

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Neither outcome is certain. Not even close.

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Kalshi's argument rests on federal preemption — the idea that federal regulatory frameworks governing its markets should override state-level gambling classifications.

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For now, Kalshi remains constrained by New Jersey's legal framework. The company can't expand the way it wants to in the state, and that situation won't change until the Supreme…

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