Regulations
By Sydney TheCMO
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Polymarket and Kalshi: Patchy Access, Big Volumes. ESMA's report called out Polymarket and Kalshi by name.
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Malta Moves First, But It's Early Days. One EU member state is actually trying to get ahead of this.
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Europe's prediction market platforms are in murky legal territory. ESMA dropped a warning in its latest Trends, Risks and Vulnerabilities report: platforms marketing or selling…
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The regulator didn't name one single pathway. It laid out three, and none of them are simple.
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Not every contract falls under MiFID II, though.
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Tokenized contracts that don't meet the financial instrument definition could land under MiCA — the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation — which has its own authorization…
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ESMA's report called out Polymarket and Kalshi by name. Both platforms restrict access in some EU countries — but not all of them.
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The volume numbers make clear why this matters. Polymarket posted roughly $12 billion in quarterly trading volume in late 2025. Kalshi wasn't far behind at $8.
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See also: ESMA Cracks Down: Polymarket and Kalshi Face Ban Over $20.8 Billion in Illegal Trades
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It's worth noting that prediction markets have grown fast globally over the past few years, fueled partly by high-profile political events and sports outcomes that drew in retail…
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One EU member state is actually trying to get ahead of this. Malta started exploring a dedicated prediction-market regulatory framework in March 2026, making it the first in the…
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And Malta is one country. The EU has 27 member states, and until there's some kind of harmonized approach — or at least clearer guidance at the EU level — platforms are stuck…
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ESMA didn't offer a timeline for when clearer rules might come. No details on that front. What the regulator did was essentially put platforms on notice: the current situation,…
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Related: MiCA Takes Effect, Yet DeFi Remains in Uncertain Legal Gray Area
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For platforms eyeing European expansion, the message is probably to slow down and get legal clarity before pushing into new member states.
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