stable coins
By Sakamoto Nashi
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Senate Misses Pre-Recess Vote, Files Cloture Motion. Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed on August 6 that no vote would happen before the recess.
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Galaxy Research Cut Its Odds, Democrats Cite Loopholes. Galaxy Research had been more optimistic earlier in the summer.
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What Happens Between Now and December 31. Even if the cloture vote clears September 15 — which isn't guaranteed — the bill still has to pass…
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Prediction markets aren't buying it. Polymarket traders put the CLARITY Act's chances of becoming law at just 21% — and they've backed that number with over $5.
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The bill — formally H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — is a 616-page attempt to bring federal order to the crypto industry.
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The Senate reconvenes September 14. The first cloture vote is penciled in for September 15. One day's turnaround.
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Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced updated language on July 22, trying to stitch together the Banking and Agriculture committee work into something both sides could live with.
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Galaxy Research had been more optimistic earlier in the summer. On July 24, it cut its passage estimate from 50% down to 30%, pointing to unresolved disputes.
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Democratic lawmakers have been vocal about the ethics provisions. Their concern — and it's not a small one — is that the bill's language around digital-asset businesses could…
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Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. But at least two are expected to vote against the bill. That puts supporters well short of the 60-vote threshold needed to beat a filibuster.
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See also: Lummis Pushes CLARITY Act Past 300-Page Revision With September Vote Now the Target
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Even if the cloture vote clears September 15 — which isn't guaranteed — the bill still has to pass the full Senate, clear Congress, and get presidential approval.
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The math is hard. The politics are harder.
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Crypto industry participants have been waiting on comprehensive federal guidance for years. The longer the uncertainty drags on, the more exchanges and issuers operate in a gray…
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Stablecoin yield provisions remain one of the stickiest points. Different factions want different things, and the gap hasn't closed. Ethics enforcement language is similarly stuck.
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