The Currency analytics
By Sakamoto Nashi
Prediction markets want legitimacy. Kalshi just filed paperwork with the CFTC asking for margin trading approval, basically trying to turn event betting into something that looks…
Crypto.com jumped in too, rolling out a US-focused prediction platform that's pretty much designed to fit into existing derivatives rules.
The CFTC pulled back some proposed rules that would've killed sports and political betting contracts, which sounds like good news for the industry.
Plus500 partnered with Kalshi and launched prediction markets for US retail clients, framing the whole thing as just another trading option alongside stocks and forex.
Technology companies are building the pipes. Leverate and Devexperts are creating tools that let traditional brokers add prediction markets without rebuilding their entire tech…
New players keep showing up. Lumina Markets, which has connections to Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy, is getting ready to launch.
Here's the weird part. Prediction markets started as places where people could bet on memes and random internet drama.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said on February 3 that he sees prediction markets as a "global truth machine." That sounds nice, but the practical reality is messier.
FTX is exploring partnerships to integrate prediction markets into their platform, trying to leverage their existing user base and trading volumes.
Kalshi's margin trading discussions with the CFTC are taking longer than expected. Sources close to the talks said the regulatory approval process is complicated because…
The UK's Financial Conduct Authority said on February 5 it plans to monitor prediction market development closely.
JPMorgan analyst Susan Lee questioned the whole premise during a February 6 conference in New York.
Binance announced exploratory talks with European regulators on February 4 about adding prediction markets to their existing platform.
Goldman Sachs released a report on February 6 analyzing how prediction markets might affect traditional finance sectors.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange held closed-door meetings on February 5 to discuss listing prediction market contracts alongside regular futures and options.