Stock Market
By Maheen Hernandez
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Kalshi's Climb and a New Entrant's Fast Start. Kalshi pushed its market share from 42.4% to nearly 58.9% in a single quarter.
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Wall Street and Silicon Valley Both Want In. Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, a platform offering binary option contracts tied to…
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What the Numbers Actually Mean. The $113.8 billion quarterly figure sounds enormous, and it is by prediction market standards.
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Prediction markets had a massive quarter. Notional volume hit $113.8 billion in Q2 2026, up 48.7% from Q1. June alone set a monthly record at $50.
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Sports drove most of that. The UEFA Champions League Final, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon all landed in the quarter, and traders piled in.
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Kalshi pushed its market share from 42.4% to nearly 58.9% in a single quarter. That's a dominant position, and it didn't happen by accident.
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Then there's Rothera. Launched in May as a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, it came out of nowhere and landed fourth place in June with $2.
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It's worth stepping back here. Two months in, a brand-new platform from a brokerage and a quant trading firm already cleared $2 billion in monthly volume.
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See also: Bitcoin Falls Below $62,500 as US-Iran Tensions Rattle Crypto Markets
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It's a different kind of prediction market play. Rather than sports outcomes or political events, Cboe is letting traders bet on market movements through a familiar financial…
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The company is building a standalone prediction markets app called Arena. Per the source, it's a priority for CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
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Meta tried something like this before. Its Forecast app launched during the COVID-19 pandemic and was shut down in 2022.
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Related: Anthropic Seeks $10 Billion from Meta as AI Sector Watches Closely
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The question now is what happens in quarters without a World Cup. Sports accounted for 81% of Polymarket's June volume.
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The entry of Cboe, Meta, and the Robinhood-Susquehanna joint venture all in the same quarter isn't coincidence.
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