The Currency analytics
By Evie Vavasseur
Prediction markets just got serious. Tradeweb Markets cut a deal with Kalshi this week, bringing event probabilities straight into Wall Street workflows with a minority…
Jump Trading didn't wait around either. The firm grabbed stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket, basically saying they'll pump liquidity into these event contracts no matter what…
Pred landed $2.5 million from Accel and Coinbase Ventures for their peer-to-peer sports exchange.
But regulators aren't sleeping on this. The Dutch Gaming Authority basically told Polymarket to shut down operations, calling it unlicensed gambling that breaks their rules.
Academic studies paint a murky picture of how well these markets actually work. Prices might match outcomes, but the economics get weird fast.
February 15 brought more drama. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told investors the company won't back down from regulatory fights, even as some states classify their event contracts as…
The London School of Economics dropped a bombshell study in January. Researchers analyzed over 500,000 contracts and found consistent favorite-longshot bias across platforms.
CFTC Chairman Selig announced plans for a March public forum on event contract regulation. He wants stakeholder input before writing new rules, which sounds reasonable until you…
Tradeweb's February 18 announcement about incorporating Kalshi data shows traditional finance slowly accepting prediction markets. But legal battles keep escalating.
Polymarket suspended European operations February 19 to avoid €420,000 weekly fines from Dutch regulators.
Stanford and MIT launched a joint research project February 20, funded by a $1.2 million National Science Foundation grant.
Kalshi plans a March 10 conference in New York featuring Jump Trading, Accel, and CFTC legal experts.
The money keeps flowing despite regulatory uncertainty. Jump Trading's liquidity commitments and Tradeweb's integration deal show Wall Street believes prediction markets survive…
Market participants face a crucial year ahead. Regulatory clarity could unlock massive institutional investment, but continued legal battles might push platforms offshore or…
The regulatory crackdown extends beyond Europe and Nevada. California's Department of Financial Protection and Innovation issued cease-and-desist letters to three unnamed…