Raydium (RAY), a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the Solana blockchain, is once again making headlines as its token price surged past a crucial resistance level at $2. This significant price move comes after nearly six weeks of consolidation, and it's fueling speculation that RAY could be poised for a further rally, possibly reaching the $2.80 mark in the short term. The breakout has caught the attention of crypto investors and traders, but the question remains—can this upward momentum be sustained, or is it just another temporary spike in an unpredictable market?

Over the past 24 hours, RAY has climbed by more than 12%, accompanied by a nearly 50% jump in daily trading volume. Even more notable is the 62% surge in Open Interest (OI), indicating that traders are placing fresh bets on continued bullish movement. These metrics suggest that market participants have renewed confidence in RAY, at least in the short term. Increased trading volume combined with rising OI is often seen as a bullish indicator, pointing to strong participation from investors expecting further gains.

The breakout above the $2 mark is more than just symbolic—it represents the end of a prolonged consolidation phase and could signal the beginning of a new upward trend. On the 3-day chart, Raydium has formed the early structure of a bullish reversal. This development has fueled optimism, especially among short-term traders. However, it’s important to note that the long-term picture remains less certain. The token is still far from recovering the gains it posted during its major rally in October 2024, when it peaked near $6.50. Since mid-January, RAY has been steadily declining, wiping out much of its previous growth.

Technically, several indicators on the higher timeframes are flashing caution. The Awesome Oscillator remains below the zero line on the 3-day chart, suggesting that bearish momentum still dominates. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows a value of -0.24, indicating capital is still flowing out of Raydium markets. Additionally, the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator, while showing some upward movement in April, has yet to confirm a sustained trend. These factors point to lingering bearish sentiment, meaning any bullish move could face headwinds unless these indicators shift more convincingly in favor of buyers.

That said, the shorter-term charts tell a different story. On the 12-hour timeframe, Raydium appears much stronger. The Awesome Oscillator has shown a bullish crossover, and the CMF has climbed above +0.05—both signs of building buying pressure. The A/D line on this timeframe also reflects increased demand for the token. These positive developments suggest that, despite bearish signals on higher timeframes, short-term momentum is currently in favor of the bulls.

If Raydium maintains its current trajectory, the next key price level to watch is $2.80. This figure marks a significant swing point and represents a logical target for traders eyeing short-term profits. However, before reaching that level, RAY will first need to overcome resistance around $2.40. This level acted as a ceiling back in February and could once again challenge bullish efforts. Should Raydium manage to push through both $2.40 and $2.80, it could test the $3 level—though this would likely depend on continued strong buying volume and supportive market conditions.

Of course, there are several potential obstacles that could derail this bullish scenario. The most significant external factor remains Bitcoin (BTC), which still sets the tone for the broader crypto market. A sudden downturn in BTC could drag altcoins like RAY down with it, regardless of their individual momentum. Additionally, overall sentiment in the crypto space remains cautious. Recent volatility has left many investors on edge, and this lingering fear could limit how far RAY can climb before facing renewed selling pressure.

Still, for now, Raydium’s breakout past $2 has brought fresh optimism to a market that has been largely subdued in recent months. If the volume holds and bullish sentiment continues to build, a run toward $2.80 may well be within reach. However, investors should remain vigilant, watching for any shifts in volume, momentum, or Bitcoin’s performance, all of which could influence RAY’s next move.

In summary, while Raydium’s long-term trend has yet to fully reverse, the short-term outlook appears increasingly positive. The breakout above $2, rising Open Interest, and supportive indicators on the 12-hour chart all suggest that a rally toward $2.80 is possible—perhaps even likely—if current market conditions persist. Still, traders should proceed with caution, as volatility remains the only constant in the crypto world.