Stock Market
By Julie Binoche
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What happened. The Canadian dollar fell. Oil prices dropped, and the loonie followed — pretty much on cue, the…
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The historical context. This isn't new territory. Canada has been through this before — more than once, and badly.
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Why it matters. A weaker loonie cuts both ways. On the surface, Canadian exporters outside the oil patch get a…
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What to watch. A few things are worth tracking closely right now.
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It's not subtle. Canada's dollar and crude prices move together so reliably that traders barely blink anymore when one drags the other.
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The 2014-2016 oil crash is the obvious reference point. West Texas Intermediate crude went from above $100 a barrel to below $30, and the Canadian dollar got hammered along the…
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Then COVID hit. Oil prices cratered again, briefly going negative in April 2020 in one of the stranger moments in modern commodity history. The Canadian dollar tracked the chaos.
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The pattern keeps repeating. That's kind of the point. Each cycle reinforces how exposed the currency remains to forces Canada can't control — OPEC decisions, global demand…
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A weaker loonie cuts both ways. On the surface, Canadian exporters outside the oil patch get a temporary lift — their goods become cheaper for foreign buyers, which can juice…
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More context: Japan-US Yen Intervention Moves Dollar Rate From 145 to 140
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But the bigger picture is harder to spin positively. The Canadian economy's reliance on oil exports means every major price drop lands like a gut punch to the currency, the trade…
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Norway keeps coming up as the comparison that stings. The Norwegians built a sovereign wealth fund from their oil revenues — one of the largest in the world — and used it to…
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The winners and losers here are pretty clear. Non-oil exporters get a short-term edge from the weaker dollar.
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Oil price trends over the next quarter matter most. A sustained drop below $70 per barrel would likely push the Canadian dollar lower still, and the pressure on trade figures…
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See also: Ripple Backs ZILO and Licuido as XRP Ledger Hits $4.06 Billion in Tracked Assets
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