The Currency Analytics
By TCA PR
So why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street?
About 80% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans - and it’s a theme evident at other books as well - with many on the…
So why is Joe Biden so far ahead in the polls and the odds on favourite? Whatever happens tonight someone is going to lose big - either pollsters, bookmakers or punters.
Crypto betting operator Cloudbet tries to explain explain how these odds have been set.
Source: Cloudbet; % figures/colour indicate probability of victory in that state as implied by current betting odds
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by bookies in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate…
In short - as with a sporting contest - what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances…
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities.
Then - what do the polls say? If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator -…
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) - implying a win…
So here then is this election's major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before.
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 - and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. About 80% of
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are…
It can't just be the polls making operators set these odds. Someone must be betting on him, in size.