Stock Market

Story: UBS Sees EUR/USD Holding Near 1.20 Through 2026

By Julie Binoche

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UBS thinks the euro will stay pretty stable against the dollar. The bank's analysts want the currency pair hanging around 1.20 for most of 2026.

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Recent trading shows the euro at roughly 1.1950, which isn't bad considering all the wild economic data coming from both sides of the Atlantic.

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Jerome Powell and his team at the Federal Reserve are taking things slow, keeping rates where they are while they watch economic conditions.

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Last week's U.S. inflation numbers caught everyone off guard - the increase came in slower than expected, and currency markets went nuts.

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The euro's got other stuff to worry about too.

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Geopolitical tensions between major economies can mess with investor confidence big time, leading to sudden currency swings that catch traders sleeping.

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Currency strategists are keeping close tabs on potential ECB interventions. Any policy shifts could completely change market dynamics and send the euro in a different direction…

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Forex markets might get busier as 2026 rolls on. Traders and analysts are ready to jump on any new data or policy announcements that come their way.

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The relationship between fiscal policies and economic recovery efforts will be crucial going forward.

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For now, forex traders are watching policy developments like hawks. Related coverage: Fed Backs Digital Banking Push as.

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UBS stays cautious about external economic shocks that could mess up the current EUR/USD balance.

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European Union economic forecasts coming in March should give more insight into the region's economic health.

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UBS also wants traders watching upcoming speeches from ECB officials like Chief Economist Philip Lane, who might drop hints about the central bank's stance on inflation and growth.

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Chinese trade balance figures in mid-March could affect global risk sentiment and impact the EUR/USD pair.

The Currency Analytics

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