Bitcoin News
By Jean-Luc Maracon
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Long-Term Holders Sold 356,000 BTC in 30 Days. The behavior of major holders, known as long-term holders, is central to the analysis.
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Matthew Sigel Holds Firm on $180,000 Despite Volatility. Matthew Sigel, at VanEck, maintains his long-term target of $180,000 for Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin at $64,500. Down 48% from its all-time high in October 2025. And VanEck says it strongly resembles a capitulation.
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The investment firm released an analysis based on its proprietary dashboard of 12 capitulation indicators. On August 18, eight of these signals were active simultaneously.
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The correction has lasted about 11 months. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have averaged 12.7 months. In other words, we're approaching the zone where it often turns around.
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The behavior of major holders, known as long-term holders, is central to the analysis. These wallets liquidated 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
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But here's the thing: they still hold 11.84 million BTC. Not exactly a total exit. More of a position reduction, likely under pressure from low prices.
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VanEck sees in this movement the beginnings of a transition to an accumulation phase. The idea: sellers tire out, patient buyers start to scoop up. The market stabilizes.
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Matthew Sigel, at VanEck, maintains his long-term target of $180,000 for Bitcoin. Even with a market that has lost almost half its value since the peak.
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Related: Bitcoin Whales Spend $2.64 Billion as Bhutan Transfers 300 Mysterious BTC
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VanEck places the potential inflection point between September and November 2026. That's the window the firm is watching.
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On a one-year horizon, however, investing in these capitulation zones has historically been more profitable. That doesn't mean it will work this time.
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It's not yet clear if the remaining four signals will activate. The source does not specify which ones are missing.
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VanEck also incorporates other factors into its analysis besides the movements of long-term holders — transaction volume, exchange flows, on-chain activity in general.
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The firm remains cautious about quick interpretations. The periods when these indicators aligned in the past did not always lead to a clear and rapid rebound.
The Currency Analytics
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