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Story: Wintermute Backs Kalshi and Polymarket with $3.5 Trillion Trading Firepower

By Julie Binoche

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Jake Ostrovskis on Why Liquidity Actually Matters Here. Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute's head of OTC trading, put it plainly: sustained liquidity is what…

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The Institutional Crowd Already Moving In. Jump Trading, Susquehanna, and Galaxy Digital are already active in prediction markets.

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Wintermute Trading just moved into prediction markets. The firm, which processes more than $3.

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The move is basically Wintermute betting that event contracts are growing up fast enough to deserve serious market-making attention.

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Jake Ostrovskis, Wintermute's head of OTC trading, put it plainly: sustained liquidity is what lets these markets produce reliable real-time probability estimates.

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It's worth being clear about what "event risk" trading actually means in this context. Traditional derivatives hedge against proxies — equity moves, rate shifts, credit spreads.

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Wintermute isn't alone in noticing this.

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Jump Trading, Susquehanna, and Galaxy Digital are already active in prediction markets. Prime brokers Clear Street and Marex have built clearing on-ramps specifically for hedge…

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That's a pretty serious roster for a market that critics still sometimes wave off as a novelty. When Jump and Susquehanna show up, it's not because someone thought it'd be fun.

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See also: Texas Man Faces SEC Charges Over $12.3M Fake AI Trading Bot Scam

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Still, there's an honest question about capacity. More institutional players means more flow.

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Wintermute's edge, if it has one, is that it doesn't need to retrofit. The blockchain settlement rails and stablecoin collateral mechanisms it uses in crypto markets translate…

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The broader picture is probably this: prediction markets have been waiting for a liquidity inflection point. Retail participation got them to $20 billion monthly.

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No one knows yet. Ostrovskis seems to think the upside is real, and Wintermute clearly decided the bet was worth making.

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Read also: Ethereum Posts 3 Straight Monthly Losses for the First Time Ever

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