Finance News
By Jean-Luc Maracon
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Fed at 86%, BOJ on Deck. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, and traders basically ran with it.
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Carry Trades Unwind, Global Markets Feel It. The yen's move hasn't stayed contained to the Tokyo session.
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Tokyo, Not Washington, May Decide the Yen's Next Move. Here's the thing: the Fed decision on Wednesday matters, but it's probably already in the price.
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The yen is up nearly 4% this month. That's not a small move — and currency desks across Tokyo and New York are paying close attention as two central bank meetings collide in the…
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As of Monday, the yen sat at 153.49 per dollar, creeping toward the seven-month high of 152.89 it touched just days earlier.
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U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, and traders basically ran with it. Per the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday reached 86%.
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But the Fed isn't the only meeting that matters here. The Bank of Japan follows on Friday, and that's where things get murky.
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TD Securities put a number on the downside risk. If the BOJ skips hikes in October and December, they think dollar/yen could slide back toward the 157 to 160 range.
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The yen's move hasn't stayed contained to the Tokyo session. Hedge funds have been adjusting carry trade positions — basically unwinding cheap yen borrowing that funded bets in…
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See also: Yen Bulls Make Comeback: Speculators Flip Long for First Time Since February
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The U.S. dollar index held steady at 99.15 after recent declines, which is kind of a sign that the broader dollar picture is still under pressure even as the Fed is expected to…
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James Athey, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Marlborough, was pretty direct about the stakes. Not raising rates, he warned, could be a significant oversight.
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That's an underappreciated angle. Pension repatriation flows are slow-moving but massive, and the GPIF's decisions don't always get the same headline attention as BOJ policy —…
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Here's the thing: the Fed decision on Wednesday matters, but it's probably already in the price. Eighty-six percent probability is a near-certainty in market terms.
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The yen's nearly 4% gain this month is real. The seven-month high is real. But whether those gains hold depends on Tokyo now, not Washington.
The Currency Analytics
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