Ethereum is currently facing a challenging market environment, with recent on-chain data revealing that nearly 74% of the supply is held at a loss. This has raised concerns about the future price movement of ETH, signaling weak market structure and growing sell-side pressure. With Ethereum’s price struggling to break free from a massive resistance wall, its next steps remain uncertain.

Ethereum’s Market Struggles: The Data Behind the Losses

According to data from IntoTheBlock, 73.97% of the Ethereum supply, equivalent to approximately 106.75 million ETH, is currently held at a loss. In contrast, only 24.07% of ETH remains in profit. This stark imbalance paints a bearish picture of the market structure, where most holders are stuck above the current trading range, unable to profit from their positions.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

A deeper analysis into Ethereum’s on-chain data highlights a significant resistance zone. Nearly 45% of Ethereum’s supply, around 66.29 million ETH, was acquired between $2,194 and $2,571. This range is held by roughly 12.28 million wallets, with an average cost basis of $2,381.85, forming a strong resistance level.

On the other hand, support levels appear to be fragile. Only 2.83 million ETH (roughly 1.96% of the supply) is currently “at the money,” having been purchased between $1,786 and $1,791. This weak support, spread across 95,470 addresses, signals that Ethereum’s price could face significant downward pressure unless stronger buyer conviction emerges around these levels.

Ethereum’s Price Struggles to Break Resistance

The $2,200–$2,580 resistance range has continued to reappear in successive data runs, reaffirming its strength. Many analysts are now questioning whether this resistance zone is truly unbreakable or merely a psychological barrier that is preventing Ethereum from moving higher.

In a market where sell-side pressure dominates, Ethereum could continue to struggle to break this range. Without strong buying interest and volume, the price may drift, with gravity favoring the bears. The persistent resistance around $2,200–$2,580 is further amplified by a lack of buyer conviction, which is currently preventing a significant breakout.

Large-Scale Withdrawals and Market Sentiment

Supporting the bearish narrative, Ethereum’s exchange netflow data reveals a marked trend of large-scale withdrawals. CryptoQuant’s data indicates that over 300,000 ETH were withdrawn in February and March 2025 alone. Notably, there were spikes of 400,000 ETH and 409,000 ETH in mid-February and early March, respectively. These withdrawals align with Ethereum’s price drops, suggesting that investors are increasingly moving their assets off exchanges to avoid selling into weakness.

While such withdrawals can signal long-term holding intentions, they also reflect a low appetite for spot exposure, which could further limit buying demand. In contrast, inflows have been rare and weak, showing limited buying interest in the market.

Realized Losses and Investor Sentiment

Ethereum’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) chart further underscores the bearish sentiment in the market. The NRPL has remained negative since early January, with consecutive realized losses recorded on February 3 ($922.48 million) and March 7 ($788.36 million). This sustained dominance of losses suggests that many investors are capitulating, reflecting reduced short-term confidence in the asset.

Additionally, Ethereum’s GIOM (Gains in Out-of-Money) chart shows that most holders are underwater, with a significant portion of the supply bought at higher levels between $2,200 and $2,580. This creates a major resistance barrier, which will require significant buyer demand to overcome.

Conclusion: Ethereum’s Uncertain Future

Despite Ethereum’s strong fundamentals and network growth, the market sentiment remains weak, with the majority of holders in a loss. The price is stuck below the $2,200–$2,580 resistance range, and there is little buying interest to push it higher. Until stronger demand materializes, Ethereum is likely to remain range-bound, facing significant sell-side pressure and limited buyer conviction. A breakout is still possible, but it will require an influx of buying volume to overcome the current resistance.