Polkadot (DOT) is showing signs of potential short-term bullish movement, provided it can break through a critical resistance level at $4.62. As the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, Polkadot’s next move depends heavily on this key level. If DOT manages to surpass this resistance, a rally toward $5.25 could be on the horizon. However, there are still several factors that investors need to consider before making any decisions.

Key Resistance: $4.62

Polkadot’s price action has faced challenges over the past several months, with the cryptocurrency erasing almost all of the gains made since November. Despite this, there are some encouraging signs. A major factor influencing Polkadot’s price is the $4.62 resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the price has been steadily climbing over the past five days, forming higher lows. A break above $4.62 would indicate a shift in market sentiment, signaling that a bullish reversal could be on the way.

While a move beyond $4.62 may not trigger a significant rally initially, it would set the stage for a potential 12% climb to the next key resistance at $5.25. This price level has been marked as a short-term target for Polkadot, and its breach could open the door to further gains.

Bullish Signs on the 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour chart, there are signs of a bullish sub-structure emerging. The higher lows formed over the past few days suggest that buyers are gradually gaining momentum. However, it is important to note that the overall market structure on the daily chart remains bearish, which could cap any significant price movements in the short term.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also provides mixed signals. Although the MACD recently formed a bullish crossover, it remains below the zero line, indicating that the broader momentum is still skewed toward the bears. While this does not entirely rule out a breakout, it suggests that Polkadot will need to overcome the resistance levels gradually rather than experiencing an immediate rally.

Volume and Market Sentiment

One of the key factors to consider is the trading volume. During the recent price retracement, the volume indicator showed that the selling pressure was not overwhelming, which could be a sign that there is still some buying interest in Polkadot. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator also shows higher lows since February, indicating that demand is slowly increasing, albeit not at the same pace as previous rallies.

However, despite these positive indicators, many of the buyers who purchased Polkadot during its previous rally are currently facing losses. These holders may be eager to exit their positions once Polkadot reaches breakeven, which could lead to resistance at higher levels. As a result, any significant gains could face strong headwinds as sellers look to lock in profits.

Potential for Further Gains

Despite the overall bearish market structure on the daily chart, the 4-hour timeframe presents a glimmer of hope for Polkadot. If the price manages to break the $4.62 resistance, it could set the stage for a short-term rally toward $5.25. However, any further gains beyond this point remain uncertain, as the broader market conditions still favor the bears.

Polkadot faces significant resistance levels at $5.38 and $6.72, and it may be challenging for the price to break through these levels in the short term. Investors and traders will need to keep an eye on key technical indicators and market sentiment to assess whether Polkadot can overcome these barriers.

Conclusion

Polkadot’s short-term outlook depends on its ability to break through the $4.62 resistance level. A successful breakout could lead to a 12% rally toward $5.25, but the overall market structure remains bearish. Investors should remain cautious, as the path to sustained gains will require overcoming significant resistance and a shift in broader market sentiment.