Bitcoin’s recent surge to nearly $64,000 triggered optimism in the market, but it faced a 1.4% retracement after setting a local top. While historical trends suggest bullish momentum for the remainder of October, the looming impact of geopolitical tensions—especially the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel—adds uncertainty to Bitcoin’s price forecast. Will BTC continue its upward trajectory, or will external factors push it back down?

Bitcoin’s Current Price Movements

Bitcoin had a strong weekend rally, gaining about 4% and reaching just under $64K. However, since the start of this week, BTC has retraced 1.4%, leading analysts to speculate on the next support and resistance levels.

On the four-hour BTC chart, a clear rejection from the $63,987 to $65,044 resistance zone has led to the current correction. Analysts predict further drops towards key support levels at $61,837 and $60,346, where the market could stabilize.

Short-Term Price Outlook

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 60, signaling that Bitcoin has not yet entered overbought territory. This suggests that BTC could experience further downward pressure before finding solid ground. Analysts expect Bitcoin to continue consolidating near the $60,000 mark in the short term, with a possible correction leading to a retest of the $57,970 to $57,201 support zone.

If Bitcoin fails to maintain its position above $60,000, a move towards sub-$60K levels would indicate a deeper correction, potentially erasing the weekend’s gains entirely.

Historical Patterns and October’s Bullish Outlook

Despite the current retracement, many traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance for the remainder of October. Jay, a prominent crypto analyst, highlighted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin has historically delivered strong returns in October. According to his analysis, BTC has a tendency to form a bottom in the first few days of the month, followed by a double-digit rally. In fact, Jay’s prediction points to a potential 30% surge to $77.7K by the end of October.

This prediction aligns with Bitcoin’s historical performance during October, often dubbed “Uptober” by crypto enthusiasts. The average return for BTC in October stands at 21%, and the highest recorded rally during this month occurred in 2013 when Bitcoin surged 70% after hitting a bottom on the second day of the month.

While these historical patterns offer hope, they should be interpreted with caution. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, especially given the unique circumstances surrounding the current market.

Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact on Bitcoin

One of the major factors that could disrupt Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory is the geopolitical landscape. The escalating Iran-Israel conflict has the potential to rattle global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Geopolitical instability often leads to increased risk aversion, and traders may look to safer assets, reducing demand for Bitcoin in the short term.

In the past, Bitcoin has shown resilience during periods of global uncertainty, but the unpredictable nature of geopolitics makes it difficult to fully gauge its impact on the cryptocurrency market. If tensions continue to rise, we may see Bitcoin’s historical patterns for October broken, as investors weigh the potential risks.

Long-Term Price Forecast

Despite the short-term corrections and external uncertainties, many analysts still maintain a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. The broader macroeconomic environment, including rising inflation and increasing adoption of digital assets, continues to provide strong support for BTC’s price.

If Bitcoin manages to hold above key psychological levels, like $60,000, and the geopolitical tensions do not escalate further, it’s possible that the cryptocurrency could resume its upward trend by mid-October. If historical patterns hold true, we may see Bitcoin reach new heights by the end of the month.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin’s price has hit some resistance following its weekend rally, the overall sentiment for October remains cautiously optimistic. Historical data points to the potential for a 30% rally by the end of the month, with BTC potentially reaching $77.7K. However, investors must be aware of the risks posed by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and other geopolitical factors, which could disrupt the bullish trend.

For now, traders will closely watch key support levels at $61,837 and $60,346 as potential areas for a rebound. Should Bitcoin fail to hold these levels, a more substantial correction could take place, pushing prices below $60,000. As always, caution and strategic positioning are advised, especially in these uncertain times.