Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, may be heading towards a significant market correction, as current price patterns in October 2024 resemble those seen during key periods in 2021. According to an analysis by trader Alan Santana, these familiar trends could indicate a bearish phase for Bitcoin, but there’s a divide in predictions. While some foresee a downturn, others argue that Bitcoin could still experience a major price surge.

Parallels Between 2021 and 2024

Alan Santana, a well-known trader on Trading View, recently highlighted how Bitcoin’s price behavior in October 2024 mirrors trends from April and November 2021. Both 2021 periods initially saw price increases but ended with a significant market downturn. Santana believes that these similarities suggest Bitcoin may follow a similar path this time around.

In both April and November of 2021, Bitcoin’s price started strong, but by the end of those months, the market turned bearish. This shift marked the end of the bull run, leading to prolonged downward trends. Santana noted the presence of a Doji candlestick pattern—an indicator of market uncertainty—right before the downturn in both instances. A Doji appears when there’s indecision between buyers and sellers, often signaling a possible trend reversal.

October 2024 seems to be following the same script, with prices showing early gains before turning red later in the month. Santana points out that another Doji candlestick has formed, indicating that Bitcoin may once again be heading for a correction. If the month closes with a red session, it could signal a long-term bearish trend, continuing the overall negative sentiment that has dominated 2024.

Key Support Levels to Watch

Santana also outlines several critical support levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next move. The levels to monitor are $55,000, $44,000, and $36,000. Should Bitcoin fall below these benchmarks, it could trigger a larger, long-term bearish trend, leading to more significant price losses.

Although the current trend looks negative, Santana advises that no firm conclusions should be drawn until the final session of the month. Traders and investors will need to watch these levels closely as October comes to a close.

Altcoins Defy Bitcoin’s Bearish Trend

Despite the gloomy outlook for Bitcoin, mid-cap and small-cap altcoins have continued to perform well. Santana notes that while larger cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum face pressure, these smaller digital assets are experiencing sustained rallies. This suggests that while Bitcoin may be on the decline, there are still profitable opportunities in the broader cryptocurrency market.

Competing Analysis Predicts Bitcoin Surge

While Santana’s outlook leans bearish, another prominent analyst sees a much more optimistic scenario for Bitcoin. Caleb Franzen, the founder of Cubic Analytics, offers a different perspective, predicting a potential price breakout for Bitcoin in the near future. Franzen’s analysis is based on the 120-day Williams% R Oscillator, a technical indicator that measures the momentum of price shifts.

Franzen points out that this indicator has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s price movements in the past. Notably, after the oscillator crossed from oversold to overbought levels in November 2022, Bitcoin experienced a notable price increase. Similar trends emerged in January and October 2023, with Bitcoin gaining 48% and 123%, respectively, following similar signals.

According to Franzen, Bitcoin has shown significant growth since early 2023, with an overall increase of 226.8% since January 14, 2023, and a 106.9% rise since October 2023. These figures suggest that Bitcoin still has bullish potential despite the current bearish signals. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $66,344, down 1.80% in the past 24 hours. Franzen believes that this dip may be temporary, with Bitcoin poised for another rally if the oscillator’s predictions hold true.

Conclusion: Uncertainty Dominates Bitcoin’s Future

With competing analyses in play, Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain. While Santana’s comparison to 2021 trends suggests that a downturn may be on the horizon, Franzen’s analysis points to a possible breakout. For now, traders and investors are left to monitor Bitcoin’s support levels and watch for any sudden shifts in market sentiment. As October draws to a close, the final sessions of the month will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin continues its decline or stages a major comeback.