Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, climbing back above the $60,000 mark. As September approaches, several key factors suggest that Bitcoin is far from being “boring” and could experience significant movements. Here’s why investors should stay alert.

1. Long-Term Holders Show Bullish Sentiment

One of the most compelling reasons Bitcoin is unlikely to remain dull in September is the bullish behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). Recent data highlights a notable increase in the realized market capitalization of Bitcoin held by LTHs, which has reached $3 billion—a figure reminiscent of December 2023 levels.

Long-term holders typically adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, keeping their assets for extended periods. They are often high-net-worth individuals or large institutions, especially in the era of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This demographic’s continued accumulation, even as short-term holders (STHs) are selling, signals confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. As these holders add to their positions, it suggests that they believe the current price levels present an opportunity rather than a reason for concern.

Amr Taha, a notable crypto analyst, pointed out that while STHs might be selling at less favorable prices, LTHs are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin. This divergence between short-term selling and long-term buying could provide a solid foundation for a bullish breakout in the near future.

2. Miners’ Selling Pressure Stabilizes

Another important factor is the behavior of Bitcoin miners. Historically, miners have been significant sellers of Bitcoin, influencing market dynamics. However, recent data shows that the selling pressure from miners has flattened out. In the second quarter of 2024, miners were actively selling Bitcoin through exchanges, but this trend has slowed notably in August.

The decrease in miners’ selling pressure suggests that miners might be transitioning toward accumulation rather than offloading their assets. This shift could be a sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s future price performance, contributing to a more stable market environment. If miners continue to hold or accumulate Bitcoin, it could reduce selling pressure and support price stability or even upward movement.

3. Stablecoin Supply Ratio Indicates Growing Liquidity

The stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) is another crucial indicator of potential bullish movement for Bitcoin. SSR measures the amount of liquidity available in the market based on the ratio of total cryptocurrency market cap to the market cap of stablecoins. A decreasing SSR ratio suggests an increase in stablecoin supply relative to the overall market cap, indicating that more liquidity is available to invest in assets like Bitcoin.

Currently, the SSR ratio has dropped to levels not seen since early February 2024. This decline reflects a significant rise in stablecoin supply, which is likely to enhance liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized that the stablecoin market cap has reached a new all-time high of $165 billion. This heightened liquidity could be a precursor to increased buying pressure on Bitcoin, potentially leading to a market rally.

Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook

In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin has recently experienced a bullish rebound with a 4.50% return over the past two days. It is testing resistance levels near $61,700, where a confluence of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs could present a significant challenge. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through this resistance and surpass the $62,737 mark, it could signal a “Change of Character” (ChoCH) in market trends.

A successful breakout above these key resistance levels would indicate a potential trend reversal and a confirmation of bullish momentum. Such a move would align with the overall positive sentiment observed among long-term holders and the improving liquidity conditions highlighted by the SSR.

Conclusion

September is shaping up to be an intriguing month for Bitcoin. Despite recent market fluctuations and the price closing below key moving averages, several factors suggest that Bitcoin is far from being uneventful. The bullish behavior of long-term holders, stabilizing miner selling pressure, and increasing liquidity from stablecoins all point toward a potentially dynamic month ahead. Investors should keep a close eye on these developments as Bitcoin navigates its path through September.