Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has seen its market dominance soar over the past few months, with its spot trading volume surpassing all other exchanges combined. Despite the broader uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, Binance’s growing influence suggests that Binance Coin (BNB) could see significant growth in the near future. If Binance’s dominance continues to rise, BNB could potentially rally to $618, mimicking previous cycles where Binance’s strong market position triggered bullish trends for its native token.

Binance’s Surging Market Dominance

As of 2025, Binance’s spot trading volume is 8 times larger than Coinbase, showcasing its unparalleled market share. Even though the spot volume has seen a decline across most exchanges in recent months, Binance’s dominance remains on an upward trajectory. In January 2024, Binance’s trading volume exceeded that of all other exchanges combined, having a significant impact on the entire crypto market. Bitcoin’s price surged from $42,000 to $73,000 during this period, and Binance Coin (BNB) saw an impressive price increase from $335 to $645.

Historically, Binance’s dominance in spot trading volume has often signaled bullish market trends, with the exchange’s performance acting as a precursor for upward momentum in the crypto market. The Binance vs. Other Exchanges BTC Spot Volume Delta indicator is currently positive, which suggests a potential bullish outlook for the broader market in the coming months, despite a general decline in spot trading volumes across exchanges.

The Bearish Sentiment for BNB

Despite Binance’s growing market dominance, BNB has yet to experience a bullish breakout. On-chain data reveals that large BNB holders are currently bearish. For example, the sale of 10,850 BNB tokens, valued at $6.51 million, by Gnomelabs highlights the lack of confidence among some investors. Gnomelabs has deposited 76.37 million USDC into Binance and Bybit, signaling that major holders are preparing to sell rather than hold.

Moreover, the futures market also reflects the bearish sentiment toward BNB. A negative futures basis suggests that traders expect BNB’s price to decline further in the coming months. The Aggregated Funding Rate for BNB has remained in negative territory, indicating that more traders are taking short positions, betting on the price of BNB to drop. As a result, shorts are paying longs, further highlighting the negative outlook for the token.

Potential for a Price Recovery

If the current bearish sentiment persists, BNB could drop below the $600 mark, potentially reaching as low as $576. However, history suggests that Binance’s dominance can be a major catalyst for a price recovery in its native coin. In previous cycles, when Binance’s market share increased, the price of BNB followed suit, reaching new highs.

If this pattern repeats itself, BNB could recover towards $618, which is a key resistance level. A breakout past this level could lead to a further rally, potentially pushing BNB to $638. As Binance continues to dominate the spot trading market, its influence on BNB’s price could grow, driving the token higher as market conditions align.

Conclusion

While BNB is facing a bearish market in the short term, the long-term outlook could be bright if Binance’s dominance continues to grow. Historical trends suggest that as Binance strengthens its position in the market, BNB could follow suit, eventually pushing its price back up to $618 or even higher. However, for now, investors should remain cautious as the bearish sentiment persists, and BNB might experience further corrections before any substantial price increase. If the market conditions change and Binance’s dominance continues to rise, BNB could see the next phase of its bullish rally, possibly reaching new heights in the coming months.