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The XRP community continues to navigate a complex mix of optimism and frustration as new financial products start while the token’s price remains stagnant. Despite the debut of the first pure spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) from Canary Capital, the price of XRP has not responded in the way many market participants expected. Still, analysts argue that ETFs may represent one of the clearest long-term catalysts for meaningful price growth — if inflows scale in the months ahead.
The debut of the Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) drew widespread attention across the market. The product generated $245 million in inflows on its first day, outperforming the start of the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF earlier this year, which recorded $111.6 million during its opening session. Even as inflows cooled on XRPC’s second day, they remained positive at around $27 million, signaling sustained demand rather than short-lived enthusiasm.
In just two trading days, the ETF tied up 120.69 million XRP valued at $275 million, a remarkable feat considering Canary Capital is smaller than giant asset managers such as Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise. The strong start has fueled speculation that demand could rise sharply once additional issuers enter the market.
More ETFs on the way — and expectations are rising
Six more spot XRP ETF applications are currently under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The pending filings come from:
• Bitwise • Grayscale • Franklin Templeton • 21Shares • CoinShares • WisdomTree
Several issuers, including Grayscale and Bitwise, have already made S-1 amendments in preparation for starts, potentially setting the stage for multiple product rollouts within a short time frame.
For many analysts, the introduction of multiple ETFs could be a watershed moment for XRP adoption because institutional inflows would no longer depend on a single product or asset manager.
Evaluating the price impact of combined ETF inflows
To estimate the potential market outcome, analysts modeled a scenario in which the seven currently known spot ETFs — including XRPC — bring in $800 million per month combined for 12 months. Over a full year, this would accumulate $9.6 billion in capital inflows.
At first glance, this projection may seem ambitious, but analysts emphasize that it is not unrealistic. XRPC alone recorded $275 million in just two days. For seven ETF products to generate $800 million across 20 trading days per month, the inflow requirement per fund would not be extreme.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg has previously suggested that up to $10 billion in inflows could occur within a single month, implying that the $800 million projection may even be conservative.
Why inflows matter more than face value
Historically, ETF inflows do not simply increase a token’s market cap on a one-to-one basis. Price changes are driven by multipliers, which measure how capital inflow influences the total valuation of an asset due to market depth, liquidity structure, order book dynamics, and demand–supply responses.
In May, market analyst Dom identified a striking example where $61 million of inflow resulted in $16.6 billion of market cap appreciation — equivalent to a 272x multiplier.
For the XRP price projection, however, analysts used a more restrained estimate — a 100x multiplier instead of 272x — to avoid speculation beyond realistic parameters.
Using that multiplier:
• $9.6 billion in ETF inflows × 100 multiplier = $960 billion added to market cap
XRP currently has a market capitalization of $136 billion. Adding $960 billion results in a projected market valuation of $1.095 trillion.
With a circulating supply of 60 billion XRP, this would translate to an approximate price of $18.30 per token — a substantial rise from its current price of around $2.23.
Long-term projections versus short-term hesitation
While ETF adoption could drive long-term momentum, immediate price reaction is not guaranteed. Bitcoin experienced a similar pattern at the beginning of 2024: the price dipped shortly after ETF Prepares before gradually climbing as institutional inflows accumulated over time.
Analysts caution that ETF demand impacts markets gradually, because:
• Fund managers accumulate assets steadily rather than instantly • Authorization, custody transfers, and liquidity balancing take time • Institutional investors typically deploy capital across scheduled periods rather than in one lump sum
As a result, the initial price response to XRP ETFs — or lack thereof — does not necessarily negate their role as major drivers of valuation over the long run.
What needs to happen for price momentum to form
According to analysts who modeled the price projection, three factors will determine whether ETF inflows ultimately help XRP climb to significantly higher valuations:
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Approval and prepare of multiple ETF issuers, not just one
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Sustained inflows rather than short-term spikes
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Supportive market conditions in liquidity and sentiment
If the ETF market matures over the next 6–12 months, XRP could see meaningful demand that does not depend on retail speculation or short-term leverage.
A realistic path — not a guaranteed one
The current analysis does not claim that XRP will reach $18 — only that this price could be achievable if projected ETF inflows occur consistently and if the expected multiplier effect follows historical patterns.
Many in the community recall that analyst Dark Defender predicted a potential $18 XRP target in late 2023 based on Elliott Wave modeling, long before the ETF narrative became dominant. Now, with the ETF market developing, the numbers behind the scenario appear more grounded than before.
For now, XRP remains in the early phase of ETF adoption. The coming months — and the scale of capital inflows — may ultimately determine whether ETFs become the mechanism that finally drives a sustained valuation breakthrough.
