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Arthur Hayes is done with Bitcoin as his top trade — at least for now. The BitMEX co-founder says Ethereum is his preferred bet, expecting a “3x to 5x” return faster than anything Bitcoin can deliver in the near term.
Hayes still thinks Bitcoin hits a seven-figure price within four years. That’s not a small call. But he’s pretty much telling anyone who’ll listen that Ethereum is the smarter play right now, given what he sees as a lopsided risk-reward setup. His argument is straightforward: Ethereum is the foundational layer for decentralized finance, it’s been undervalued for a while, and that gap won’t stay open forever. Bitcoin keeps climbing, sure. But ETH, per Hayes, has the kind of upside that Bitcoin just can’t match over a shorter time horizon. He’s not abandoning Bitcoin — he’s just saying the faster money is elsewhere.
Ethereum, Hyperliquid, and the Shitcoin Space
Hayes also took a shot at Hyperliquid. He knows the asset, he’s not dismissing it entirely, but he doesn’t see it offering the same asymmetrical rewards as Ethereum. In fact, he went further, saying the broader “shitcoin space” has a more favorable risk-reward profile than Hyperliquid right now. That’s a blunt take from someone who spent years building one of the most influential crypto derivatives platforms on the planet.
And it’s worth noting what Hayes isn’t saying. He’s not calling Hyperliquid worthless. He’s saying Ethereum beats it on potential. There’s a difference.
Meanwhile, not everyone shares Hayes’ long-term Bitcoin optimism. Markus Thielen of 10x Research recently said Bitcoin hitting $1 million by 2030 is “mathematically impossible,” pointing to historical capital inflows as a hard ceiling. Bitcoin has risen 22.15% in the past month, per CoinMarketCap, so the bulls aren’t exactly panicking. But the debate about how high it can realistically go isn’t going away.
BitMEX Shuts Down — Hayes Says It Was Their Call
The bigger news, maybe, is BitMEX itself. The exchange Hayes co-founded is shutting down on September 23. He said he’s satisfied with the decision to “land the plane on our own terms.” That phrasing matters — he’s drawing a clear line between a strategic wind-down and a collapse. No security breach. No regulatory gun to the head. Just a business decision.
His reasoning is basically economic. Running a crypto exchange without the scale of Binance or OKX is, in his words, a “mug’s game.” The cost structure doesn’t work unless you’re operating at the level of the giants. For a mid-tier platform, the math is brutal. Hayes didn’t sugarcoat it.
BitMEX launched in 2014. Hayes co-founded it alongside Ben Dolo and Samuel Reed. It was a genuinely pioneering operation — early in crypto derivatives, fast-moving, and for a time, dominant. Hayes came to it from equity derivatives trading at Deutsche Bank and Citibank in Hong Kong, so he wasn’t new to complex financial products. But the exchange faced regulatory pressure over the years, and the competitive landscape shifted hard. Binance, OKX, and others scaled up in ways that made smaller operators increasingly unviable.
So he’s moving on. And he seems fine with that.
Trump, the Fed, and Crypto Legislation
Hayes pushed back on the idea that Donald Trump’s statements move crypto markets in any meaningful way. Trump has expressed interest in bringing Hyperliquid to the U.S., but Hayes basically shrugged at that. His view: watch the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Those are the institutions that actually shift prices. Political noise from Trump, per Hayes, is mostly just that — noise.
He’s also skeptical about crypto legislation getting serious traction. The CLARITY Act came up, and Hayes wasn’t exactly bullish on its prospects. His read is that average voters don’t prioritize crypto legislation, which means politicians don’t either. It’s not a winning issue at the ballot box, so it probably won’t be a priority in Washington. Unclear whether that changes, but that’s his take right now.
Ethereum’s DeFi infrastructure, the BitMEX closure, skepticism about political catalysts — Hayes is painting a pretty consistent picture. He thinks the real opportunity is in assets that are structurally positioned for growth, not ones riding political momentum. And he thinks Ethereum fits that description better than almost anything else in the market right now.
BitMEX users have been advised to close positions and withdraw funds before September 23.
Hub: Bitcoin price, news, and analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Arthur Hayes prefer Ethereum over Bitcoin right now?
Hayes sees Ethereum as offering a “3x to 5x” return faster than Bitcoin, citing its role as the foundational layer for DeFi and what he views as its current undervaluation.
When is BitMEX shutting down and why?
BitMEX is closing on September 23. Hayes said the decision was strategic, driven by the prohibitive costs of running a crypto exchange without the scale of industry leaders like Binance or OKX.
Why It Matters
Hayes' shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum highlights a growing trend among investors who are increasingly recognizing the potential of Ethereum's utility and DeFi ecosystem as a driver for returns. This perspective could influence market sentiment, as traders reassess their strategies and allocations in light of what Hayes perceives as favorable risk-reward dynamics. Additionally, his long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin suggests that while immediate opportunities may lie in Ethereum, the larger narrative of digital asset appreciation remains intact across the crypto landscape.
