Avalanche (AVAX) has entered a period of market divergence, where two key investor groups—retail traders and whales—are behaving in strikingly different ways. While individual investors appear to be exiting the scene, large holders are quietly increasing their positions, offering both support and uncertainty for the asset’s near-term trajectory.

Despite a 4.12% drop in AVAX’s price in the last 24 hours, whale activity has intensified, keeping the token from sliding further. This disconnect between retail pullback and institutional accumulation is creating a complex environment for price action and investor sentiment.

Retail Retreat, Whale Surge

Recent data from blockchain analytics firm Nansen shows that retail participation has significantly diminished. Over the past month, the number of active addresses on the Avalanche network has fallen sharply by 74%, dropping to just 414,234. Similarly, transaction volume has decreased by 34%, down to 2.99 million.

These figures paint a clear picture: retail traders are losing interest in AVAX. However, this vacuum is being filled by much larger players.

At the same time retail users are stepping back, Avalanche’s transaction fees have surged. In the past seven days alone, network fees climbed 116%, reaching $243,280. This spike suggests that larger institutional participants—commonly referred to as whales—are now dominating the network’s activity. Their involvement typically signals long-term confidence and strategic positioning, especially when retail interest fades.

Spot Markets Reflect the Shift

The whale presence has also been observed in centralized exchange (CEX) activity. In just one day, wallets associated with large holders accumulated approximately $10.62 million worth of AVAX, nearly matching the highest single-day whale purchase this year, which occurred in early April.

Looking at broader weekly trends, these buyers snapped up over $22.9 million worth of AVAX. This behavior implies that whales view current prices as an attractive buying opportunity, especially after the token’s recent downtrend.

Meanwhile, decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes are showing signs of revival. AVAX DEX activity recently climbed to $161 million, hinting at a potential return to the asset’s previous DEX high above $200 million. If this trend holds, it could lend further support to the token’s price.

Technical Outlook: Resistance in Focus

Despite the underlying bullish sentiment from whales, AVAX faces a major hurdle at the $26.47 resistance level. On the chart, the token has been fluctuating within an ascending triangle pattern, and unless it can break decisively above this resistance, it may remain stuck in its current range.

A successful move past $26.47 could open the door for a strong rally, with a potential upside target of $41.90—a 58% increase from current levels. Such a breakout would likely require continued whale accumulation and broader support from spot markets.

However, if AVAX fails to breach this resistance and retail disengagement persists, the token may revert to its previous trading pattern within the triangle. This could limit near-term growth and delay any major bullish continuation.

Is AVAX at a Tipping Point?

Avalanche finds itself in a transitional phase. While declining retail activity often signals weakening momentum, the growing influence of whale investors provides a buffer against a deeper selloff. It also adds a layer of strategic accumulation, often seen ahead of future price expansions.

Still, questions remain. Will retail traders return to the market if AVAX starts gaining traction again? Or will the burden of driving price action fall entirely on institutional buyers?

In the short term, AVAX’s price direction may largely depend on whether it can break through key resistance and sustain buyer interest. If it does, whales could continue to lead the charge toward higher levels. But if enthusiasm fails to reignite, Avalanche risks slipping back into a period of stagnation—despite the whales’ best efforts.