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Momentum around an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has reached a new high after Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas declared that approval odds are now “essentially 100%.” His statement comes at a critical time, as U.S. regulators are preparing to evaluate multiple XRP ETF applications in October.
Balchunas explained that recent regulatory changes have made the process significantly easier for issuers. By adopting generic listing standards, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) no longer requires companies to submit the traditional 19b-4 filings. Instead, issuers only need clearance from the commission’s Corporation Finance division, a development that removes one of the biggest procedural barriers.
According to Balchunas, several asset managers have already submitted updated S-1 amendments, showing confidence that the finish line is close.
October Becomes a Defining Month for XRP ETFs
Attention now turns to October, when the SEC will review six separate applications for spot XRP ETFs in a tightly packed schedule. The lineup begins on October 18 with Grayscale’s filing, followed by 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and CoinShares in the days that follow. The review period concludes on October 24 with WisdomTree’s submission.
These reviews are expected to provide greater clarity about how quickly XRP ETFs could enter the U.S. market. Industry watchers believe approvals could come sooner rather than later, given that issuers are actively adjusting to the SEC’s new framework.
Market Confidence Reinforced by Polymarket Odds
The optimism expressed by Balchunas is further supported by Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform. Data from the platform currently places the probability of XRP ETF approval at more than 99%, reinforcing the idea that clearance is now a matter of timing rather than uncertainty.
While some analysts caution that a potential U.S. government shutdown could temporarily affect the schedule, the structural changes to ETF filings mean that approval is widely seen as inevitable.
XRP Price Forecast: Expert Sees $33 Target
In parallel with the regulatory optimism, crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has issued a bullish long-term forecast for XRP. He projects that the token could rally to as high as $33 in its next market cycle, a level that would represent one of the most dramatic price increases in its history.
EGRAG bases his outlook on XRP’s past performance during major bullish phases. In 2017, the token surged by more than 350%, while in 2021 it delivered triple-digit gains once again. According to him, similar conditions are aligning, with the possibility of another breakout as early as late November 2025.
Strengthening Fundamentals Support the Bullish Case
Beyond ETF speculation, XRP’s ecosystem has been expanding with important technological and institutional developments.
The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has rolled out significant upgrades designed to accommodate advanced financial tools. These include tokenized swap mechanisms tied to well-known investment products such as BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and VanEck’s VBill product. Analysts say these improvements could increase XRP’s role in institutional finance by making it easier for large investors to access blockchain-based solutions.
Adding to the bullish narrative, a recent report revealed that a French finance executive acquired $48 million worth of XRP in a single purchase. Market observers believe this is part of a broader accumulation trend, as institutional players position themselves ahead of potential ETF approvals.
Growing Institutional Interest
Institutional involvement has always been a key driver of long-term price stability in cryptocurrency markets. The possibility of an XRP ETF is expected to significantly lower the barrier for traditional investors who have been reluctant to navigate crypto exchanges.
Industry leaders such as Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, have emphasized the importance of the coming weeks. Geraci called October “enormous” for the future of crypto ETFs, suggesting that decisions made this month will have ripple effects across the entire digital asset landscape.
What Comes Next for XRP and the Market
If the SEC moves forward with approvals, XRP would join Bitcoin and Ethereum in gaining access to one of the most powerful financial products in global markets: the U.S. ETF. Analysts believe this could unlock billions in inflows, expand XRP’s legitimacy among institutional investors, and potentially provide the foundation for long-term price appreciation.
While no ETF approval is ever fully guaranteed until the final decision is published, the combination of regulatory momentum, market confidence, and institutional participation paints a favorable picture for XRP heading into late 2025.
For investors, the next few weeks could define XRP’s trajectory for years to come. With billions of dollars and the credibility of crypto ETFs on the line, the stage is set for one of the most significant moments in the history of the digital asset.
