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Day 203. That’s where things stand, and the fuel pain is spreading fast across five countries simultaneously — France, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nepal — each dealing with shortages in their own messy way.
Brent crude surged to nearly $110 this month, the highest since spring. The Strait of Hormuz has been badly disrupted since Iran retaliated against US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Now Houthi advances at the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint are squeezing a second vital oil corridor. The CEO of Vitol put the supply shortfall at roughly 2 million barrels per day from Russia and the Middle East combined. The International Energy Agency confirmed that refined shipments from the Gulf are still under 50% of their February levels. Russian diesel exports have halved since June. So it’s not just crude anymore — it’s refined products too, which is a different kind of problem for countries that can’t easily substitute.
Not good.
France Leads the Pain, Macron Calls G7
France is taking the hardest visible hit among wealthy nations. Between September 13 and 15, somewhere between 10% and 12% of French fuel stations were missing at least one fuel type. Grand Est, in the northeast, ran worse — 14% of stations short. SP95-E5 petrol hit €2.17 per liter, a record. On September 15, fishermen blockaded a fuel depot, which probably didn’t help distribution.
President Emmanuel Macron said France might tap strategic reserves and wants a G7 meeting to coordinate a joint response. France technically has 118 days of net import cover sitting in reserves, which sounds like a lot. But the problem isn’t the crude — it’s getting refined products through the distribution network fast enough. That bottleneck is the real issue, and reserves don’t fix it overnight.
No word yet from other G7 governments on whether they’ll join Macron’s call.
Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal: Rationing Gets Harder
Pakistan brought emergency fuel restrictions back on September 17 — 89 days after lifting them. Businesses now face strict operating hour limits. Government vehicles got a 50% cut in fuel allocation. The government is also racing to lock down oil and gas supply contracts before November, when winter demand picks up and the competition for global supply gets even fiercer.
Bangladesh is probably in the roughest spot of all. The country is heavily dependent on imported petroleum, and energy rationing there has gotten severe. In Dhaka, residents are basically scheduling their lives around gas pressure — cooking in the early hours of the morning when pressure is higher. The garment industry, which is central to Bangladesh’s economy, is dealing with power cuts and rationing that are disrupting production. That’s not a minor inconvenience. That’s a threat to export revenue.
Nepal’s situation is a bit different but just as bad. A landslide blocked the Prithvi Highway, cutting off a key supply route into Kathmandu. Bottling plants in the capital dropped to just 5% capacity. Residents are turning to firewood. The supplies minister resigned amid the political fallout. For a landlocked country that can’t easily reroute imports, a blocked highway isn’t just a logistics headache — it’s a crisis. The geography basically makes Nepal more vulnerable than almost any other country in this list.
Indonesia is dealing with long queues, especially in Makassar, where drivers waited up to three hours for fuel. Authorities tried rationing by vehicle registration number, but tensions stayed high and protests broke out. The energy minister later said the shortage was resolved — though the country is still fighting a weaker currency. The Indonesian rupiah lost 11% against the dollar by June, which means fuel imports cost significantly more in local terms even before the war-driven price spike. The government is drafting rules to restrict subsidized fuel access for wealthier households, trying to stretch limited supply further.
Winter Is Coming and the Competition Gets Ugly
The Northern Hemisphere’s heating season is basically here. And that means Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nepal are all competing for the same energy resources that Europe needs to get through winter. That’s a brutal dynamic. Wealthier countries can outbid poorer ones on spot markets. Poorer countries ration harder.
Macron’s push for a G7 reserve release is a recognition that coordinated action is probably the only way to move the needle at this scale. But there’s no confirmation from other G7 members yet, and coordination on energy reserves has historically been slow and contentious even in less urgent situations.
The IEA’s numbers are stark. Gulf refined shipments still under half of February levels. Russian diesel exports down 50% since June. Two million barrels a day missing from global supply. Brent at nearly $110. France at record pump prices. Pakistan rationing for the second time in three months. Nepal’s bottling plants at 5% capacity.
The Vitol CEO’s 2 million barrel-per-day figure is the one that keeps coming up in energy circles as the number that explains why this feels different from past disruptions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which five countries are facing fuel shortages tied to the Iran war?
France, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nepal are all dealing with fuel shortages or rationing measures linked to disruptions caused by the ongoing Iran war, now on day 203.
How high has Brent crude risen during the conflict?
Brent crude surged to nearly $110 this month, the highest level since spring, driven by disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab chokepoint.
Why It Matters
The surge in Brent crude prices amid ongoing fuel shortages highlights the fragility of global oil supply chains, particularly as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. The concurrent rationing in multiple nations reflects a growing concern over energy security, which could lead to increased volatility in oil markets and ripple effects across economies heavily reliant on imported fuel. This situation underscores the interconnectedness of global energy dynamics and the potential for further disruptions if conflicts persist.
