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Cardano (ADA) has been struggling throughout 2025, with its price gradually declining since the first quarter. Recently, ADA tested a critical support level at around $0.65 before seeing a minor bounce back. However, the overall outlook remains uncertain as several market indicators suggest that the worst could be ahead for Cardano’s price.
One of the key challenges ADA faces is a broader market environment that has been unfavorable for many altcoins. For instance, the ongoing delay in the review of Grayscale’s ADA ETF filing has added to the uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, Cardano’s underlying technology and network developments continue to progress, with recent updates and collaborations helping it maintain a foothold in the competitive blockchain space.
Institutional interest has increased, partly fueled by Cardano’s interoperability efforts with other blockchains and its inclusion in notable cryptocurrency reserve statements, such as the one made by former U.S. President Donald Trump in Q1 2025. This institutional adoption is a positive sign, yet Cardano still faces tough competition from larger players like Solana and XRP, both of which command bigger market capitalizations and broader user bases.
Looking at trader sentiment, futures market data from Binance reveals a complicated picture. While the long-to-short ratio on Binance stands at a bullish 2.57, liquidation data tells a different story. In the last 24 hours, more than $900,000 worth of long positions have been liquidated, compared to about $140,000 in shorts. This suggests that despite traders leaning bullish, short-term selling pressure is weighing heavily on ADA’s price.
Technical analysis shows that Cardano is currently holding support at a fixed range high-profile zone on the chart, which could be seen as a positive sign. However, this bullish structure alone may not be enough to offset the bearish signals coming from on-chain data.
Metrics such as Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) have spiked sharply, indicating that many investors have been booking profits recently. This kind of profit-taking often precedes price declines. Additionally, the Age Consumed index, which measures the activity and behavior of holders, is rising, another bearish indication.
Another worrying sign is Cardano’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) 30-day metric, which recently dropped below zero to about -6.8%. This negative reading means that on average, recent buyers of ADA are currently holding losses. This puts additional selling pressure on the token as investors seek to minimize losses.
Cardano’s Total Value Locked (TVL), a measure of how much value is committed to its decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, has also been steadily declining. Currently, the TVL stands at roughly $318 million, down from previous highs. A shrinking TVL points to weakening demand and adoption of Cardano-based DeFi projects, which does not bode well for ADA’s price outlook.
The declining TVL and bearish on-chain metrics highlight the critical need for Cardano to accelerate its technological development and improve ecosystem growth. Without renewed adoption and use cases, ADA could struggle to break out of its downward trend.
Price-wise, ADA is currently trapped in a falling channel, precariously hovering near the crucial $0.65 support level. If this support breaks decisively, it could trigger a sharp decline, confirming a deeper correction phase. The market will be closely watching whether ADA can hold this level or if further losses lie ahead.
In summary, while Cardano’s technology and institutional interest provide some optimism, a combination of bearish on-chain data, declining adoption, and technical weakness suggests that ADA could face significant price challenges in the near term. Investors should approach cautiously, keeping an eye on critical support levels and on-chain developments that could alter the current downtrend.
