Cardano has recently emerged from a period of prolonged weakness, reclaiming a key support area near $0.59 after weeks of selling pressure. As of this writing, ADA is trading around $0.61, and market sentiment suggests growing optimism among institutional and retail investors. The current setup offers a potential launchpad for a move higher—but whether ADA can sustain a breakout depends on several interlinked factors.

One of the clearest bullish signals comes from spot taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) data. Over the past 90 days, market orders executed at the ask price—where buyers show conviction—have consistently outpaced sell orders. This controls clip implies an underlying bullish momentum building quietly beneath the surface. If this trend continues, ADA stands a strong chance of clearing the immediate resistance at $0.67. A daily close above this would likely shift market sentiment markedly upward, potentially opening the door to gains in the $0.83–$0.91 range.

Complementing this bullish tone is the activity of large ADA holders, commonly referred to as “whales.” On July 4, on‑chain data revealed a net outflow of $2.33 million worth of ADA from centralized exchanges. This suggests that investors are moving large balances into private or cold wallets—typically a sign of accumulation rather than liquidation. Persistent exchange withdrawals like this often reduce the sell-side pressure and support price stability. However, the key question remains whether this is a one-off event or the start of a sustained pattern.

Despite the accumulation signals, some caution flags have emerged around fundamental valuation. Cardano’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has climbed to approximately 273, indicating that the network’s market value is growing faster than its underlying usage. While bullish price action is developing, the cautious note is that speculative interest may outpace actual adoption. Unless transactional volume and utility increase alongside price gains, elevated NVT could limit ADA’s upside or result in higher volatility.

Further evidence supporting ADA’s developing strength comes from the behavior of short-term holders. According to Realized Cap HODL Waves, coins purchased within the last 1–7 days now account for less than 1.5% of ADA’s realized cap—down from significantly higher levels earlier in June. This decline suggests reduced trading activity from short-term speculators, a positive sign for price stability. With fewer traders seeking quick profits, ADA may have the breathing room it needs to consolidate before attempting any major surge.

Sentiment gains in stability are further affirmed by the drop in Spent Output Age Bands, which track the volume of recently acquired coins being spent. Typically, spikes in this metric reflect a flurry of take-profit activity. But having seen spikes above $100 million last month, the volume of 1–7 day old coins spent recently fell to just $11 million. This sharp reduction indicates that most new holders are choosing to hold rather than sell, reinforcing ADA’s bullish base.

Technically speaking, Cardano is perched at the edge of a critical inflection zone. Price action has retested the $0.67 resistance multiple times but has yet to close convincingly above it. Chart analysts agree that a sustained close above this level could trigger a sharp rally. However, until that happens, ADA may remain rangebound, with consolidation likely between the current support and resistance levels. A downward move below $0.59 could undermine the bullish thesis and push ADA back into a defensive pattern, highlighting the importance of maintaining supportive momentum.

In summary, Cardano appears to be walking a fine line between renewed bullish potential and lingering skepticism. Whale accumulation, positive ask-side CVD, declining short-term holder activity, and reduced sell pressure across on‑chain metrics all point toward a potential breakout. Yet elevated valuation indicators such as the NVT ratio caution that price advances may be premature without corresponding growth in utility.

If ADA can capture the moment and break above $0.67 with conviction, it stands a real chance of heading toward $0.83, and potentially $0.91—but only if transactional usage and investor confidence continue to build. Until then, ADA remains in a critical equilibrium: strengthened by accumulation, but not yet unlocked by broad-based adoption.

Watch points for traders and investors:

• Sustained CVD ask-side dominance signaling bullish momentum

• Continued whale outflows reducing sell-side pressure

• Price action near $0.67–$0.70, testing resistance

• On‑chain utility metrics, including transaction volume and NVT trends

Whether Cardano’s “whale-backed” comeback leads to the next leg higher will depend on how these variables align. A breakout toward $0.83–$0.91 is within reach—but only if the bullish structure holds and adoption catches up with valuation.