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Cardano (ADA) is under pressure this week as investors wait for a key decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the proposed Grayscale ADA spot ETF. Currently, ADA is trading at around $0.74, down more than 1% on Wednesday morning, and traders are growing more cautious.
ADA ETF Deadline Adds to Uncertainty
The SEC is expected to make its final decision on the Grayscale Cardano ETF by Thursday, May 29. This follows a 45-day delay back in March. As the deadline gets closer, ADA’s price has become more volatile, with traders unsure whether the ETF will be approved, delayed again, or denied.
Just last week, the SEC postponed its decision on another ETF—the Fidelity Solana Fund—suggesting that a similar delay for Cardano is possible.
Price Pattern Suggests a Potential Drop
On the technical side, Cardano’s recent price action has formed a triangle pattern, which usually signals that a breakout is coming—either up or down. In ADA’s case, signs are leaning bearish.
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Lower highs (on March 3, May 12, and May 23) and
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Higher lows (on April 9, May 6, and May 25)
…have created a tightening range. This pattern, called a symmetrical triangle, is approaching its end, and a breakout could happen soon.
The 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are all close to the lower trendline. This could help ADA stay above support for now, but pressure is clearly building.
Notably, there’s a “golden cross”—where the 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA—which sometimes signals a bullish trend. However, other signals are less optimistic.
Indicators Show Weak Momentum
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The MACD indicator, which tracks momentum, is trending lower and is close to the zero line, suggesting bulls are losing steam.
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50 and pointing down, showing neutral momentum but leaning slightly bearish.
If ADA closes below $0.72 (the 200-day EMA), it could fall further, possibly down to $0.64, a support level last seen in early May.
What if the Price Moves Up?
If instead ADA breaks above the $0.84 resistance level, it could rally to $1.12, which has been a major resistance since last December. However, this would require strong bullish momentum—something that’s currently lacking.
Derivatives Market Shows Mixed Signals
While sentiment among ADA spot traders is cautious, the derivatives market is still active. Data from Coinglass shows a 4% increase in Open Interest (OI), now sitting at $945 million. This means more money is flowing into ADA futures and options, but it doesn’t necessarily mean traders are optimistic—it could also indicate more people are betting on price drops.
Final Thoughts
Cardano is at a key turning point. With the ETF deadline just around the corner, price could swing either way depending on what the SEC decides. Traders should watch the $0.72 support and $0.84 resistance levels closely, as a break in either direction could lead to significant price movement.
Whether the triangle pattern leads to a breakdown or a breakout, it’s clear that ADA is in for a big move soon. The upcoming ETF decision is likely to act as a major catalyst, either boosting market confidence or triggering further downside. Meanwhile, technical indicators are flashing mixed signals, and traders remain on edge. With growing interest in derivatives and increasing volatility, the days ahead will be crucial for ADA’s short-term direction. Investors should stay alert, monitor market developments, and be prepared for sudden shifts in sentiment. As always, risk management will be key in navigating the uncertain waters ahead for Cardano.
